One of the most wild weeks I've ever seen. I thought TSLA was crazy and then this happened. I am hopeful commentary helped.
LONG INTRO TO SCAN TO HOPEFULLY RELATE TO SOME WHO HAD TOUGH WEEK AND PROPS TO THOSE THAT HAD A GREAT WEEK.
I'm not one to boast or say told you so or say I called this or that but I truly hope that things were firing on all cylinders for some - I got some crazy feedback this week more than I ever because of how well we saw things in the room. Heck I'm not even talking about virus names only - yes lots of opportunity there but more so the following:
Starting with SPCE swing you guys are very familiar with and range anticipated to the dollar and exactly when I felt it'd unwind -- to understanding that MRNA was SPCE version 2.0 and also anticipated range to the dollar. Goal of $37 + gap and unwind and not to underestimate the unwind on either.
Last Sunday scan APT was my swing in the $6s - felt like shorts were caught off guard.
Comparing the VIR set up at $29 to SDGR and then over night suggesting NXTC style move was likely and it did 80% of the move - doubling AGAIN.
Keep in mind when stocks start acting like penny stocks that's my game. That's how I learned as a trader. That's why I shine in this action.
Last two things was the big SPY idea suggesting that this was not the same as the other times. I spent some time on Twitter writing where I thought we were heading and why this time was a bit different. In fact - I think we rebound +/- 1000 pts near term (which we started too) but I don't believe we'll be rebounding "back to highs" etc this year at all. I believe we'll be in a holding pattern with some more panic near term, catch a bid consolidate and then perhaps more volatility towards the election.
If you missed it here it is:
This pull back on markets although it may have some nice rebounds along way I don't see why we wouldn't test $280-295 range short term.
Maybe a few days rebound then some air pockets. Nothing is going to go straight down nor will it rebound w/o panic/flush out & snap back$SPY
— Nathan Michaud (@InvestorsLive) February 25, 2020
Lastly the thought on coronavirus and how I expected them to act on Friday. On THURSDAY I said I think THURSDAY was MAX liquidity day whereas Friday would gap up but don't buy the dip, it'd be different and more natural orderly market. Whomever wanted to sell sold, paper offerings etc cleared because demand > supply EVEN with the offerings. Remember IGC? They did 3 or so offerings on the ride up? Same thing.
So as I said I don't like to boast - not saying I told you so but let's get a dose of reality too. Last week was an easy $500K-1 million week. Did I screw up? Absolutely. Did I get some good pieces. Yes. I have rules that perhaps need some fine tuning. One rule is to SELL every time a non organic newsletter disrupts the flow 90% of the time I am happy. One change I made this week to that rule is UNLESS it's part of SECTOR rotation like this coronavirus sector because last week I made a huge mistake selling 25K AHPI below $4 to get away from the crowd. As I told the room I felt like this was "thinner than most thought" and that I thought it "could be the one" -- including an AHs runner etc and not to underestimate it. Heck, I had it all there and once a big padding AHPI could have scaled in etc. We can play that game all day but you know what - I missed it is what it is and much like my advice on a big winning day -- NEXT. TO BE EXPECTED. NEXT. Can't beat yourself up even if it was a $500-750K mistake.
Next dose of reality - pre exhaustion: On Thursday I crushed MRNA among many other names CODX etc. I also was trading APT - I did not have wish orders out so instead of banking it every time it flushed out I got into a holding pattern wasting time, energy and exhausting myself. Although I had some good trades on it, good entries - I eventually over stayed and gave more than I wanted back on it. The easy fix? Oh I knew the line, but I wanted to not miss. NOPE.
So although I definitely under performed last week and should have gone with my gut on a lot of things and stuck around longer than I did I made some mistakes, sold too soon & minimized the hell out of what could have been a career career career week.
So no matter how good the calls no matter how great you can see things - execution is always different. Don't get me wrong, there were some big trades last week. Was I frustrated? Yes. Could I have done better? Yes. Did I learn something new? Yes.
So a few words of encouragement because I know many also had some bad days too - the same market that taketh - giveth.
WHAT DO I THINK OF VIRUS NAMES?
1. Depends news flow over weekend
2. Depends news flow over Mon-Tues etc.
3. If 1&2 are in check - my thought would be that EVERYONE got short Friday it unwound they got paid they took the majority off and looking to re short come Monday. With that said I think it's important to think about that before making a trade - make sure you have room and if everyone has the same plan be aware of the likelihood of STAYING POWER. Importance of nail and bail -- and scale back in if it stays heavy. Remember how long CODX stuck around? Exactly. Everyone on same page.
Video Scan and Game Plan
Stocks to Watch
NVAX I think this is going to be a big trade. I could see this unwinding to $12 near term or lower but not without a dance party that keeps us on our toes. Once it does unwind I think it'll continually pull. This was just one major squeeze. It closed really well on Friday did puke out AHs real fast before recovering so we'll see. It was trading SUPER thin which made me nervous about stepping in front. Once the tide turns it'll be obvious and will dabble from there. No need to be hero here.
APT I think there is a HUGE lesson here looking left - when you saw me cover $17s and get long $16.50-17.50 range as I went over on the video lesson Friday the reason for that was what we learned on Thursday. Take notes and never forget what you see. I think we can still hang around if it flushes out I think we'll have a few points bounce if it gaps up I think we'll have a nice $3-4 fade. BE CAUTIOUS things will get choppy and illiquid.
MRNA morning shove and fade off. This candle was just late day Friday cover. I think it can have some more push $1-1.50 + then fade off flat to red.
IBIO big trade opportunity - check the recap from Friday comments in room were A+ and covers were even better. I think many are short b/c of the filing and confident and although the trade is likely right -- if it keeps failing to break down take note, be aware it can easily let up and squeeze. With that said #KnowWhatYouOwn just like TNXP writing is on the wall - so always come back and re check that dial and make sure risk is in check.
ALT super dirty name, last time they raised it was lethal. Up on thin volume and destroyed everyone. They will do it again - so be cautious PRE MARKET for sure. There is always risk at every time but - if it's working it's way up pre market and looking squeezish I do not want to touch it, I'd wait until after open until 11AM + and then afraid to touch in case midday offering. They are as dirty as NNVC was. Higher better and possible fade as goal. Late to the virus game - so they're just putting out PR for two reasons: Volume & Raise.
OPGN higher better - thinking this fades off peoples radar. DO NOT get FOMO on missing this, they did a lot of trappy action on the pulls. Watch ramps/fails - thin enough it can extend. Only would fade it if looks like no one shows up on Monday.
VXRT raised and warrants purely supply and demand - it'll matter but doesn't matter yet. Cautiously looking to fade it if RELATIVE weakness vs. peers
Continuation / Breakout:
IMAC absolutely love this chart, big volume into the final hour of close seems like someone was scooping it up. That said, we can see by the history it likes to sell off so to me that means - prove it! Prove to me you want to go. For me that level is $1.20 as I said in the room Friday - I took some on the flush at close. If this turns into anything and has a bidder $1.20 + then we may have a fun pre market and break out - if not, will wait for confirmation of trend.
ICAD lower better for break out potential
TTNP had some vol over .30s AHs - have to keep all these on watch. If this gaps could go nuts. BIOC IBIO HTBX etc. They're WORKING right now so what I would usually ignore - I am paying attention to.
HTBX held about 70% of what I bought early from idea in room over - sold some into the ramp at close - great close. BIOC I felt like it was too strong so that's why I ditched them.
Failed Follow Through:
SPCE not looking to step in front but looking to react to one big morning gap and shove for the quick fade then let it consolidate do its thing and wait for failed follow through. REMEMBER those that unwind further than you think can bounce further than you think. Less volume, more shorts. etc.
CLR looking to trade w/ sector great volume great range.
DWT if we get sector bounce I will look to lean on this.
MRO tried it Friday but went in and out a few times - nice idea - looking for weak open and rebound to join otherwise avoid.
AAL rebound watch - let it flush out and rally.
SABR hit on the virus as well waiting for the day it proves it wants to rally - and will join and look for the scale. If it stays heavy stay CAUTIOUS.
Bigger Picture Ideas:
DEAC lower better been dabbling as noted on prior scan. March Madness is coming.
TRIL thinking the halt brought in shorts and we can have a leg up & break out Monday