Futures are lower tonight after reports of explosions in Iran are sparking fear that Israel is striking near Iranian nuclear facilities. This type of headline spikes vol, and when the market opens it can gap down. We don’t have all the details and a lot can change by the morning so for now I’m just looking to see which key variables to watch tomorrow. Tomorrow also happens to be mopex (monthly options expiration). Could make for a wild day.
TSLA went under 150 today which was the first target in this sell off. If the market keeps staying heavy this can fall lower but let’s see how the market is before I try to figure out the timing. Earnings are coming soon and unless the market changes there could be a brutal reaction.
I had a trade on MARA today that I cut or a moderate gain when the market started to reverse. One of the keys to surviving and trading well in volatile markets is to leave your bias at the door and feel the action. Trade more cautiously, and if something feels off, then get out and reassess.
Gold is doing well so far with the conflict headlines. GDX will be on watch tomorrow for possible calls.
One final general note about conflict / war and markets: Why do things sell off? It’s because conflict creates uncertainty, and markets don’t like uncertainty. Does Iran strike back harder? Does Russia get involved? Does China? Will commodities spike with sanctions and will that accelerate inflation? We don’t know, and neither do markets. So Many times people will take money off the table until there is some certainty. Historically, war and conflict tend to boost commodity prices, defense stocks, and if severe and abrupt enough then people sometimes pile into bonds. Hopefully there can be a peaceful resolution to all this, but if not then those are areas to pay attention to.
And just incase we reverse off the lows, RDDT looks like DJT before it squeezed so that will be on watch for calls.
Thank you Chris
Love it! Watching TSLA like a hawk, much appreciated!