Insanity !!

Let’s kill the FOMO right now though. If you try to nail the “next” one you’re going to end up with one hole after another. These are far and few between and catch shorts off guard. Remember this past Sunday scan? I said everyone was getting rewarded for swinging short for offerings lately one after another after another. There was four or five last week that I warned on about not being long because they likely were going to raise and as soon as 2-5 min or a few hours later they all did. It was “too easy” for sizeable swing shorts. So, what was HOLO? Recent reverse split with the intention of likely raising ASAP — until well, they catch shorts off guard and take advantage of it. Today caught ’em. Personally I don’t know anyone blasted – even TOP I knew like two or three but HOLO I know no one who got trapped short. So, that’s good news.

I feel like HOLO would have been one that in years past broken accounts left and right and I saw so many long traders and great charts. Great job – nice pattern recognition EARLY with the VWAP soak and relating it to HUDI in the mid $3s thinking $10-12 potential. I guess I underestimated that one lol $50 works too. Very similar to MLGO and then the pressure came as well.

I’m going to play devils advocate here for a second and just calm down some of your emotions. Was this a $1-2M opportunity? Absolutely. 50K long is not a crazy sized position in the $3-4-5-10 range but at $12-15-20 it starts to really get up there and would you hold $30-40-50 full size? Let’s be realistic. It’s dumb to hold full size all the way through unless you were like me that day last year on MINM and off desk when it went circuit to circuit etc and was fortunate to not sell into the first move.

But, same rules apply on HOLO as the rest. Much like China names and my rules on not shorting those liquidation plays UNLESS the particular criteria that I went over on that Sunday scan is met a while back – IT’S NOT WORTH TRADING THEM SIZE. What is the risk on these short side? I mean … ZJYL etc. right? Well, how about when they dump? You have a stop loss and … it circuits down then opens and goes to next circuit so at best you only lose 50%? Typically unwinding to -80%.

So, like CHSN trade that was a huge score – what did it do? It taught everyone that shorting the bid in size was okay.

So, what does HOLO do? It teaches everyone that longing these things recklessly into crazy moves is definitely okay.

Traders have short term memories – don’t forget that. Yes, if you remember nothing else just remember that traders have short term memories. Now, the “China” risk on these “ramp and dump” plays is “non existent” and people will get clippppped on the next one it’ll swipe up into an exit and then circuit down down down.

That EASILY could have happened into close. I knew it was likely to have some WILD action into close because at the end of the day it was a carbon copy HUDI and HUDI squeezed like mad into close and then unwound AHs. Could it have stuffed at close? Sure. It didn’t but it could have. So really at that point the only “okay” and “safe” play is if you were dip buying all day with that thesis given – NOT BUYING break outs. Most break outs failed and re collected shorts.

So anyway – be realistic with yourself.

Be honest with yourself.

Risky ass trade. No, it’s not safe to take crazy size on them. Sure this would have worked but how many don’t? This was as special situation – when I see the trap, the action and an algo I am familiar with ie: “I’ve seen this action before” I am a broken record like today and try to provide examples.

Did I think it’d do it that perfect? And that EXACT? Hell no.

But, don’t use emotions tomorrow and get clipped. Be safe be cautious. There will be a dozen + opportunities on China names.

Last note EVERYONE will likely fade the 4AM fade to 7AM and it’ll either trap or not. If it is EASY ie: no gut checks, no “oh shit” moments etc. that means EVERY short is on the right side and hasn’t covered so if it flushes a bit off open and soaks everything — BE FRIGGIN’ CAUTIOUS.

You NEED to see swipe test ie: rebounds/swipes that push out early shorts and get heavy etc. multiple re-test. If it’s just straight down yes it could keep going but if you F around too much you’ll find out. Be patient.

Go back to look at 2 x ago when MLGO ran – and look at HKIT HUDI etc all AHs and watch what they did in the AM — that will be good to review.

Main Watches:

PLTR ideally gap up .50+ then fade off if not today maybe tomorrow Thursday options start to really decay so they may want to keep building as much premium as they can until the last minute

SNAP higher better and unwind – missed today didn’t push enough for me

RUM been a good trader as long as you take profits but if you take 1/2 off like me today then grinds back it’s a lot of work for nothing. But, what can you take from that? In my eyes shorts are actually really bent here. It’s never held gains. Every push has failed. Now, Barstool comes along and this thing rockets. Shorts are on the wrong side and I’ll be potentially looking for some sorta $10-12 move reminds me a lot of ALT at this point. Again, if trend shifts in the coming days I will re-evaluate and will always look to join a fade like today.

Failed Follow Through:

HKIT higher better for back side – watch with HOLO

ADVM price alerts for fade day

Continuation:

GRRR feels like one of those that could do that next leg $1.25-1.50 in one day. It obviously should have faded. It’s holding well. Do they get the warrants or do they raise. That is the question. We’ll see but open mind to dips for squeeze. They reported so if they can’t get it bumping there is a good chance they raise soon.

MLGO I feel like someone was trying to accumulate stock today lots of 100k offers and bids that soaked. Will watch with open mind if trend firms up vs. VWAP I’ll trade it.

NVIV possible T+2

LAES non stop since liquidity trap idea.

Staying Familiar: