Probably the wildest week of 2023 last week.
Traders4ACause is coming super quick! Some big announcements coming!
If you think about it like a sports analogy – we’re essentially training and testing out “systems” day in and day out studying up for the big game.
You’re watching the footage/tape daily of your opponents. We’re practicing proper risk management so when it comes time to go for it, we have the best chance at avoiding land mines thrown our way.
Being able to understand when it’s “time” and when cycles start/finish is what will exponentially fuel your career. In last week’s Sunday video we talked about shorts getting complacent — too many LAY UPS. Too much ‘easy’ for shorts. This creates the complacency we talked about. This false sense of confidence develops from being rewarded for recklessness over and over.
Pay attention to risk and trade plans the rest of this week. It's hard to pick the wrong name to fade as of late.
When confidence and conviction meet complacency, outlier moves happen.
Stay nimble. Make sure trade agrees.
— Nathan Michaud (@InvestorsLive) October 5, 2023
And likewise for longs – after the cycle was in full motion, longs got complacent. All you had to do was buy long anything that upticked. Then, as you saw, that came crashing down — but it’s important to understand when that cycle has shifted (SECO VS OPGN etc.)
Pay attention long side risk rest of week. Everyone now chasing anything that upticks. Shorts have gone from insane confidence to lacking it. This is when the best fades come. Lots of round trips coming just watch out for the land mines (ie: shoulda died) but hanging = avoid.… https://t.co/lJJAo3orzm
— Nathan Michaud (@InvestorsLive) October 12, 2023
- Protecting average
- A week of liquidity traps!
- EDSA ACXP MNTS TANH etc.
- TANH intraday double followed by the round trip
- PRZO buy ins right on time (discussion last week)
Here are our t-shirt winners this week:
Video Scan and Game Plan
Stocks to Watch
BPTH higher better and likely fizzles off — think about VS and OPGN leave some buffer in case they want to swipe it in your face before settles down. Reacting to both VS and OPGN parabolic moves worked really well on Friday from those entries and reads. I’d like for same opportunities on BPTH again. If trend holds and volume slows mid week be cautious over sizing vs. liquidity otherwise you saw what happened with PRZO.
MLGO another liquidity trap play shorts still twisted here good trap 3.70-3.80 on Friday. I figured round trip if $3.70-3.80s exhausted out but instead they laid a good trap there. I’d love to see similar candle as last time – not as big IMO but same concept. Shorts got too aggressive they’re stuck let them blow ’em out and look for fade after that ie: TANH ACXP MNTS EDSA etc.
EH I was trying so hard to let that one work to red on Friday. It almost got there but not quite. Insane fade from $37.80 entry and a few more – didn’t go too aggressive size since you never know with those outlier moves so I had to position in the event $40-45 swiped and be good with it. Then had opportunity to add in but pretty insane $18 fade! These names are tough, China names typically pick a trend and just go. So, I think morning shove could get sold off red but if I force a bias/thesis it’s very easy to get in trouble with these cuz they just go $1 …. $2 …. $3 …. and don’t care what you think. Think back to trading BABA JD FUTU etc. they do what they want for as long as they want and then randomly change trend.
Failed Follow Through:
OPGN likely finds it’s way back to sub .50s – like SECO and the rest it won’t be a straight line give yourself room for swipes and ideally more opportunities like Friday’s two great opportunities
LFMD watching for trend to finally fail to follow through
AMC nice idea on Friday – watch morning .20-.30 + push then fade red is ideal
TUP higher better for back side
PRZO as you saw Thursday the buy in started – headlines started again and away it went. This time I’m sure just as many shorts but 1/3-1/4 the liquidity. This is when big moves can happen. Liked all dips for a break out move on Friday. $3.30 being the key. Come next week as long as we are over $3.30s use your imagination until then edge = flushes as long as the trend holds. If you buy breakouts IMO you get chopped and second guess your entries.
HUBC the Chris Lanzilotti “Anchored Speculation” trade off PRZO – good call in IU on Friday.
MOB same concept.