Amazing opportunity last week. Incredible opportunities left and right -- definitely minimized overall but hey, can't complain about much in this market and the opportunity we had on MARK - literally carbon copy the FCEL trade.
There has been an INCREDIBLE increase of traders in this industry like we've never seen before. But with that comes a lot of headaches as a business because traders think they know what they need because of advertisements they see. They want to be spoon fed vs. learn to trade. They want the PnL first without understanding the risk.
Sure, memberships are at all time highs but in the end it's the quality of trader we want not the quantity.
We as a business have to unlearn what traders see from ads targeting the low hanging fruit ie: quantity > quality.
Examples of Marketing Low Hanging Fruit: Learn to trade in less than 10 hours, become a consistent trader in 30 days or how I turned $100 into $1 million, or as usual here's my car bought with trading profits 🙂
There is a reason why all veteran traders end up at IU.
What do we want at IU?
We want the most committed with a REAL work ethic.
We want those who want to learn FIRST place trades second.
We want those who want to do this LONG term, not take random shots for random results.
You see me putting in the work every night on scans, putting in the work every Sunday for these scans, you see me in the trenches every day. You see me forcing myself to stay accountable working out etc - that's commitment.
You don't need to be the very best (yet) we know that people start at different levels -- but you DO need to be the MOST committed.
That's what we want at IU.
If you want to be told when to buy and sell, want text alerts, think you can learn to trade in a few hours or focus is on a Lamborghini - just click the X button at the top of your browser 🙂
So let's shift gears a bit.
Public Service Announcement - Craziness, making $$ in this market doesn't mean you're making the right decisions. Trust me on this.
Reckless traders are being rewarded right now in a big way. They think because things went up they made a good trade. Newsflash, everything is running.
You saw over a half dozen warnings this week before 30-60% unwinds. Doesn't mean things will always pull back but I try to tweet/warn even if I'm not participating when FOMO & Risk > Reward.
Reckless entries and reckless decisions over time will leave you with trading as a hobby vs a career.
I've been at this 17 years and it's never been this silly. Be cautious. Be cautious more than ever.
BUT -- Understand - trades comes in PHASES.
FOMO comes in phases it's up to you to figure it out - ABIO -> SNOA etc. Reverse splits, oil and gas, currently gambling names etc.
- FRONT SIDE BACK SIDE
- KEY LEVELS
- EACH SUNDAY LESSON
- WEBINAR THIS WEEK
LAST CALL FOR 4 FREE SESSIONS WITH ZACH! DM @AvidityFitness on Twitter or @ztmullin on Instagram. It all start with you. We have a dozen traders that have joined up four times a week. What are you waiting for?
- Lots of huge reversals on squeeze up but met resistance - note the relative weakness vs. peers
- Travel names (cruises, airlines etc) and Retail all failed to hold trend post squeeze up.
- Note relative weakness on mortgage names.
Video Scan and Game Plan
Stocks to Watch
DKNG ideally some blow off if this hangs around $40 for a bit this can easily go $45-50 + and blow off all it has done is pull back and trap, it was barely hanging on Friday looked like it was about to unwind and then launched $2 on air. Shorts are stuck in a big way. For now I'd be watching all flushes as opportunity for possible squeeze out -- until we get that parabolic move. Catalyst is all sports opening back up etc -- no one is going to sell this name. Every sports gambler is long and strong to get their fix and they're killing it.
ADAP some incredible commentary in the Trader's Lounge as this was happening. Discussed where the traps occurred before the intraday blow off. We'll learn a lot pre market and 945-10AM + cautious forming too strong of a bias before then. Usually this is a weak spot where I come in with a heavy bias and try to force my thesis even if trade suggest otherwise. I will have a solid game plan here on the broadcast at 850AM but we'll definitely have a play here.
MARK super hopeful that they put out a PR or something to get more headline buyers - this thing worked out better than anticipated. Perfect plan perfect comparison to FCEL trade dropping post earnings. Their earnings call was a sales pitch and said nothing skating around trying not to answer the fact they issued a boat load of shares. Good comparison is FCEL though, stock will not go straight down shareholder base is too large (which is the reason why so many silly replies on Twitter). I am mostly boxed with the flush out after hours and will look to re short all fails for the eventual unwind sub $2 near term.
AESE got long on Friday on dips. Goal was not to chase it but just quietly be there on dips. Went to pick up my daughter came back to the desk and it was $1 higher AHs which was great to see. I took 1/3 off just because and carrying the rest over. Will be looking to trade all dips as long as DKNG and the sector stays hot. Remember -- note the THEMES!
GMBL huge call by Michele in the room (TradeOnTheFly) past few days - there is a good chance I end up shorting this but I put it under continuation b/c I think if DKNG has legs and keeps squeezing out this may just consolidate and also have another leg. BUT if we see it rip $1-2 and squeeze out then I'll have no other choice but to fade it some 🙂
DVAX 945-10AM + trend join. Nice move on Friday insane alert in the room before it even popped. Had a great long and flipped short for the trade. Will look left for resistance levels.
Failed Follow Through:
NBR killer trade plan for Friday - it's more than doubled since the reversal idea which unfortunately I barely took must off of - but most importantly kept it on watch goal was $50 shove for the short we got about $47s before it ran into a wall so reacted per the plan discussed on the broadcast and faded it down. Major range, big opportunity. Higher better and looking to fade it for another $5 + down.
SNOA great commentary in the room remained short all day from spelling it out in the room felt like we were going $8-9 and that's exactly where it went. Covered into the close. Worked perfect. Morning shove is ideal and then possible $2-3 more downside.
NERV major reactive trade on Friday - sick alert on the target increase midday that doubled it huge move through $4 used that blow off as a spot to get short aggressively with a target of $3.80 on the flush ended up getting 3.60-3.80s on the cover. In an ideal world we get $4.20 + re-test again and then fade off. I want the trade to prove itself before stepping in front and assuming that my idea is right.
PHIO broadcast plan was to EXPECT $6.50s + gap fill blow off and then size in and fade it - held all day. Impressive unwind. Hoping they don't raise Monday morning so that we have another opportunity into any good rush.
The following are all charts I want to be FAMILIAR with and set price alerts weekly on. As you saw this week a lot of the big trades came form "Staying Familiar" names that hit price alerts.
I will set price alerts for the following - but not going to WATCH them because it's all about FOCUS. FOCUS on a FEW main watches and be ALERTED when you want to know on the rest.
How do you KNOW when you should be alerted?
Focus on looking left prior support / resistance / key levels etc.