And just like that, 2023 is here! Happy New Year to everyone!
If the last week of 2022 is any sign for the weeks, months, and year ahead, we are in good shape! At least for a bit!
Pretty wild week last week - lots of runners and, most importantly: secondary squeezers. It's been a while since we've had runs maintaining for multiple days. The secondary squeezes were not random either - you really had to be fighting the trade, stepping in front or taking a low quality set up to get run over last week. That's the way I prefer since I have pretty good risk management, the head aches typically come from the random swipes, circuits and other traps that just happen out of the blue which is only minimized by smaller size and building in the swipe risk we've discussed many times.
I think the number of plays continues to be the edge in determining whether or not things are going to be super crowded for the day. If we wake up with 5-10 gappers and things are all spread out I feel more confident about my A-quality set ups. If there are only one or two main trades, than I know the crowd is going to be an added risk to the trade and therefore 1. ignore it 2. size down 3. build in swipe risk 4. huge focus on proactive covers.
Was around each day last week - but tried to get off the desk once things were 50/50 or I was just trading to trade and there wasn't a massive edge.
Each New Years I've had a strong focus on taking more time away etc. Since 18, my work ethic has been similar to what you see today -- ONE MODE: GO. It took me two years to even make a dent in the "get off the desk more" resolution. I used to get super anxious about not trading the open, not having an eye on things and what it was that I was missing. I always needed an eye on things. Over the last few years I've been way better at that. I can take the day off and no care about what I miss.
Things to consider in 2023:
- Focus on YOU - literally just YOU (in trading).
- Less can be more (both in life and trading).
- Priorities change (jobs, family, kids, etc.)
- Who are you aspiring to be? (bachelor mindset vs. family?)
- Swing vs. day trade pros and cons?
- Someone always makes more - WHO CARES !! You wouldn't if you weren't on social!?
- Put yourself out there ONLY as long as you NEED/WANT to! The benefits over the long run diminish quickly as everyone will take their own insecurities out on you. Over time you'll realize what a waste it is to reply to those who don't have the ability to think out of the box and do what you've done.
- Take non-monetary-based risk (Get out of your comfort zone - interview/give back/speak).
- Take someone under your wing (that you see a similar drive in as you once had). You'll be surprised by the fulfillment this brings. If you can't be happy for someone else's successes, you'll never be happy on your own.
Some personal goals for me:
- Continue to reduce headache and stress exposure (low floaters changes I've made)
- Continue to work on getting off the desk after the morning session was sufficient - trade to live or live to trade?
- Bump my cardio up. I haven't stopped lifting Zach keeps me accountable on that, but cardio definitely took a hit, and that's on me.
- Continue to find hidden gems within the IU community as we did in 2022 and break them out of their shell as I progress to my non-24/7 trading life to something a bit more balanced.
- Take a vacation that I actually don't trade for a week (or maybe just one of the days to start? Baby steps ...)
- Connect with more traders both locally (this summer for content) and in different satellite spots like pre-COVID
Anyhow just some ideas on how to really kick 2023 into high gear right off the top.
Video Scan and Game Plan
Stocks to Watch
TGTX morning shove is ideal -- maybe gap over $12-12.50 + blow out and then unwind. We'll see. Lots of pretty high PTs on this one -- the only one that maintained a pretty low price was Goldman. The other move I'd be prepared for is $11.50s consolidate for a red/green set up move off some sorta ABCD set up.
PALI good chance it gaps down but I'd love to see some sorta gap and re-test into $5.50s then fade off.
FUTU morning shove for unwind again - missed a big trade Friday wanted to join the fade 10AM+
HOTH another crowded name Friday - I think shorts just leaned every pop so like we talk about - kick the can down the road sorta situation. In my opinion -- it fades but it jus needs to work out all the crowd from the 'obvious' short last week. Any morning shove .50 + that fails is of interest.
Failed Follow Through:
ATNF morning shove - let crowd exhaust and then failed follow through set up.
KALA been a great trader lately - most trades been okay Thursday had a good morning trade then re-leaned later in day and gave it back but Friday was lights out. Still a work in progress on getting long these especially seeing the $14.50 trap, the $19 soak $22 soak $22.30-40 reclaim and confirm and lastly $30.5 level Friday (same as $14.50 level on Thursday). These are the things you need to focus on from a more big picture trade vs. having micro mindset on these.
TAL GOTU EDU 945-10AM + trend join
ARDX continued break out - nice daily after the dip and rip $2.50 IMO sentiment shift
VAPO same as you know been there since $1.7x's on the swing idea a while back that reminded me of CABA
PRQR continues to squeeze out on the liquidity trap. All dips v $3.50s interest me for a $4 blow off
TBLA daily chart break out set up if $3s stay firm for $3.20 + squeeze trigger
FREQ nice idea last week - non stop break out from idea.
SLNO check the wicks - should look familiar to the conversations we've had many times. I'd avoid getting super bulled up until $2 starts to base and prove. Right now they're soaking all sub $2 but also having trouble at $2 100M vol to not too much. Interested in big picture.