A real clean week last week – no real headaches in small cap land.
The only action I saw that could have caught shorts off guard was on about five names with major clearouts into the close (i.e., OCEA Friday, as an example). It is the same deal with EFOI, TBIO, and a few others. There’s no real reason to have been short leading into it, all higher lows, VWAP reclaim, etc. The only reason you’d get bent on a name like OCEA or EFOI is if you literally ignored hours of sideways/gearing action.
Names to be short are names staying heavy after multiple swipe tests and failed follow-through setups. Those that fade easily and go sideways for hours = risk goes up 2pm+
SMCI and NVDA had big range. They are great traders, but it is not as easy as it looks when you look back at EOD. The range is intense.
CPOP is a great example of not forgetting names for those in account-building mode.
I would say the biggest thing in the last two weeks is being able to adapt your thesis on the fly. Don’t force it to play out. Case in point: SMCI and LUNR.
Video Scan and Game Plan
Stocks to Watch
LUNR felt SUPER meme-ish and honestly does have a super cult following so there is a good chance we get lots more opportunities but at the end of the day as we discussed this was a sell the news event all day long. We knew that, but we also knew it was SUPER crowded so it’s never going to go accordingly to plan perfect. Personally I was hopeful it’d firm up and give another big leg but 1. the key levels $11.20-11.60 blew out and STAYED HEAVY so after the solid rip off lows that idea PLAYED out and you HAVE to adjust when $11.60 proves to fail AGAIN and 2. You’d think (hindsight or not, this was even Eric’s thesis) why the hell wouldn’t they be tweeting Moon photos all day? It smelled from the start. So, instead of saying the truth they waited until 5PM to announce that on the meeting so they could sell ALL day. At the end of the day this was a SPAC and we know like SPCE etc. that this one goal here MAKE THE BEST STORY – make you a believer and sell you stock. So this is going to become a thick pig likely fade back to where it came from and then reverse split in 6-12 months. Regardless, watching any good rips Monday + for failed follow through.
OCEA higher better for back side – weird squeeze out EOD with no news. Ideally opens flattish or up then back to $1
IOVA thinking +/- $2 soon either we are going to $18 or $14 prepared for both
Failed Follow Through:
AXTI Nice levels Friday $3.80-4.20 – would use same for failed follow through set up
TBIO nice squeeze out EOD ideally morning shove and back towards .60s
IBRX higher better and fade
RIVN any good shoves for failed follow through
Continuation:
MNPR killer long idea Friday was my main gainer – loaded $1.10+ range and then scaled into winner sold each rip and finally bailed last 1/3 later on.
VTYX dips for break out potential (be open to change – if $7 peaks again then that’s a good double top too)
ZVSA liq trap potential
IFBD ‘ramp’ portion happening (if the concept of the ramp and dump doesn’t make sense to you – you haven’t been paying attention).
DOGZ ‘ramp’ portion happening
Staying Familiar:
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