Wild week of runners last week.
Market was showing signs again like last time I said I felt it was close to having some wild squeezer ie: PRZO if you recall when I had mentioned it felt like an outlier move was close.
Said the same thing again but didn’t think we’d be THAT close to a major mover.
Feels like we're 3-4 weeks away from a black swan in small caps. Could sneak in as early as the next few days but doubtful. I'm thinking we're a few weeks out. One you talk about for years, not months.
I'm getting those pre euphoric vibes like last time 👇 https://t.co/ubotCjQJ47
— Nathan Michaud (@InvestorsLive) November 29, 2023
All that said, I would not consider VVOS a Black Swan.
Yes, it had a monster move but that required shorts to ignore price action all day and more so force/try to nail the trade vs. waiting for the trade to come to them. Like TPST it wasn’t a move that no one had a chance to get out – it was more so a stubborn squeeze that compounded a problem rather quickly if risk was not respected. That’s really what it comes down to. TPST I didn’t know too many who got run over and those that did just ignored their risk plan throughout the day as it was a slow steady squeeze over hours. Likewise with VVOS it showed all the signs.
When I called for a potential outlier move most of the peanut gallery sits there and thinks that it’s an attempt to say “I called it” in hindsight etc. — which as most with a brain know, is not the case.
- The idea was posted ahead therefore not hindsight by definition
- It’s less about nailing the trade more about being aware of the near euphoric small cap market we are in which will allow a move like this to happen AND THEREFORE not stepping in FRONT of the move.
Forget “I called it” just think about – WAS I AWARE THAT I SHOULD BE TREADING CAREFULLY or did I ignore the signs? That’s the real question to ask.
Did you ignore 2-3-4 hours of consolidation before the dip and rip candle sent it off into EOD squeeze? If so – for next time, now you know (AGAIN) that you need to respect the trend and not trade what you want to happen.
- Broadcast !!
- Changes Coming
- Small cap vibes
- VVOS – Ignition
- MWSS – Max!
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Questions sent in:
Hey Nate, could you go over how you manage to quickly size into trades while maintaining your risk management ? are you using your own position size chart or there’s some program that helps you with deciding how many shares you should short/long ? thanks in advance
Can you go over T+2 and what it means exactly? I’ve tried to do more research on it but it’s tough 😅
Black swans / widow makers / outliers moves becoming more “common”, how to spot them early into the session ? You shared a great video on SGD by @Chris_J_Lance, among other things a spike a few days earlier was a hint it could squeeze due to shorts trapped. Important topic imo to avoid potential blow up, are there any other criteria that we can track ?
Video Scan and Game Plan
Stocks to Watch
NEXI reactive trade – likely gaps down but would be great to re
GME Reactive trade is ideal – great trader last week.
AFRM blow out move ideally $1-2 more + and then sit back flat possible fade off $1-2 more. In other words thinking $2-4 fade potential near term off highs.
Failed Follow Through:
PAPL ideally blows out rest of shorts then fade off opportunity like CMND
VIEW nice $2.87 entry short on Friday live – ideally more trades like this because they’ve been great. Morning shove would be FANTASTIC if one circuit halt up to scare everyone and then fade rest of day. Thinking it gaps down .88-.92 though but we’ll see. Hoping for secondary fade opp.
HCDI higher better for back side – nice short entry on Friday with goal of the $1 fade.
NEGG so far so good – this was a long idea vs $1.10 risk at $1.20 – worked well so far love to see $2-2.20 + blow out before fading back.
PATH watch weak opens next few days for a bid to soak and then rally back r/g AFRM style
RDHL dead cat bounce is ideal given liquidity any good push + over sized shorts can push up to next liquidity pocket before fading back off
ASST notable consolidation clear seller over .80 so if it starts to build .80-.85 that’s when I care.
MGRM notable soak 3.50