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NIO: Nutty today, & they pulled the classic a/h ramp to really twist the short knife. I’m not going to jump to a bias here, usually when we get one of these hot IPOs, I tend to lean towards the side of “they go further than you think” a la TLRY, HUYA IQ etc, but I’ll likely look to fade the pre action. If it’s weak in pre, I’ll lean long on weak open hold. If it gaps up more 14-15 or something crazy like that, I’d lean more towards fading open strength. We’ll see what we wake up to.
CRON: Pretty annoying we have SSR again tmrw, as long as that’s around I don’t anticipate any huge meltdowns, although it’s had no trouble fading with it on the last two days. Probably a testament to just how much long retail money is in there that needs to come out of this on top of the prop guys. I’m hoping for a bounce day tmrw and push back to mid 10s to resume the short trade next week.
GERN: This one is always interesting. All will be crystal clear soon enough. Weird today how JNJ kept GERN’s drug in their presentation, that would insinuate they’d be leaning towards keeping it. But at the same time, the fact they didn’t have an answer today, or even an update really past “we’re still reviewing the data” well….if it was great data, should be a no brainier, right? But it’s not, they are still undecided, which makes me think the data is probably shaky at best. The toxicity profile to be exact. So. It’s a bit of a gamble as we could hear news on the decision at any time, but I tend to lean towards the side that this company is not going to receive good news in that decision. I may be wrong simply on the fact JNJ kept the drug in the presentation, I’m just going with my gut. I like the short trade.
Shoot me a message anytime in chat (DGTrading101 is my IU handle) and I’m happy to discuss your trade ideas with you. If you’re not an IU member and would like to become one, you can join us here.
See you out there!
– D
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