Happy Mother's Day!
I hope each and every one of the Mom's out there has a wonderful day!
My one thought for today before I get into a few topics I was thinking about is look, you're going to break rules. Even if I preach the same thing over and over, you still likely won't listen. And, heck, myself, I'll probably break rules in the future, but the key is:
- Minimize the situations you do break them
- Take your "freeze-up" out of the equation
Most people don't have a second shot because they freeze up. I met a few people in Chicago that hit max stops and said, "I would not be at this meet up today if I didn't have the max stop you don't shut up about!" It hit last week and saved me from an account blowup.
I can preach preach preach day in and day out, but it really will never TRULY hit home until you're faced with it first hand. Honestly as bad as it sounds it's best to get that feeling over with sooner > later. That's why it's best to take that option away from you.
There are some that do this over and over and are too proud for a max stop and, most importantly, always blame others as a scapegoat. For example, on Friday I mentioned I thought it could go nuts AHs and basically, if you were still short after $3.50 soaked $3.90 reclaimed and $4.15 triggered, your risk was elevated. All the signs were there unless you ignored them.
So, why bring this up? I had a repeat offender (someone who does this over and over but never learns from it because their 'take away' is to blame others for their loss) The same trader who blew a big chunk on TOP and ignored all warnings came after me on Friday calling GSIT a 'hindsight' call.
That sorta stuff doesn't offend me, I can be anyone's punching bag, but the reason I bring it up today is because I want people to focus on REALITY, not their FALSE TRUTHS that they convince themselves is right.
All warning signs were there on TOP, as you saw with the warnings at $7 and again $15-17 range and anticipating the halt into close.
All warning signs were there on GSIT, as you saw with the warnings ahead, the idea for an after-hours runner was at 3:58 PM. That is not hindsight.
SO THE TAKEAWAY?
Stop believing the crap you tell yourself will HINDER your ability to excel as a trader. Timestamps are timestamps whether you like it or not. The definition of hindsight alone tells you that 'truth' is incorrect. Here's the problem. Many would rather come at me to suggest I am doing an "I told you so" but as I've said -- that's never the case. There is no GOOD way to showcase that this was predictable ahead. It doesn't mean I got long, it doesn't mean I thought it was going to do what it did but what it means is it has the POTENTIAL and when it has the POTENTIAL many will NOT do it, but to me it's IMPORTANT to be out of the trade because I know if I am right I will make 10-20% of what I'd LOSE if I was wrong.
Does that make sense?
When volume, price action, tight range, stuff moves soaked etc. and all the stars align yes FEW go but the ones that do are lethal - SO WHY EVEN PARTICIPATE?
This is the take away. This is what I want you to see. It's the same basic concepts that keep you out of trouble but when ignored I know it's easy to blame others.
Remember YOU vs. YOU.
In Chicago! Literally people were SO happy about a LOSS, a MAX stop - cuz, they're still around. All it takes is one - when you're least prepared.
Don't make today's problem tomorrow's problem!
Next up, I wanted to go over a few concepts almost in a lighting round style format. My goal is to continue to hammer away the ideas so that you see the same setup but on different time frames, situations etc. They always look a little different but in the end they're the same. The more you see the more prepared you can get.
- PLSE Clear Out Example
- GSIT Levels Review
- PLTR Looking Left Daily Chart
- PLX Sell News Event
- SAI Forgotten Unwinder
- HCDI Speed Of Amendment
Geoff Nevala - Twitter
ColinsSmith8155 - YouTube
PeterZ - Twitter
StockGodd - Twitter
Video Scan and Game Plan
Stocks to Watch
TIO great opportunity on Friday, probably was a little too aggressive but I do know when it's time it's going to be massive just like the opportunities on IBRX and NNOX etc. Finally some real liquid names with a real market not controlled by one or two parties that could swipe it at a moments notice. I'd be looking for the same set up as we went over Friday and traded.
NNOX hopeful for a re-test of a prior line and then looking to fade it again -- HOWEVER I want to be cautious with a bias until after e/r. It's my belief everyone hammered after they announced proposed offering and traders didn't realize they were in a quiet period prior to their earnings. I'd imagine they price it within 24 hours of filing their quarter. Also, I believe the J&J stake caught a few traders, smart traders, because yes, they are right -- it's not like they came into the market and acquired the shares they were given them with the 510K. So, I think after it popped on that people shorted because it was obviously touted as a ++ but really they were just receiving them and updating their filing. All of that said - this reminds me of AI - you don't want to be too early and too bias but when it's time don't underestimate the unwind.
GSIT solid levels on Friday $3.50, 3.90 and $4.15 trigger. Great warning about likelihood of being an after hours runner. The longer they consolidate with no confirmations (ie: stuff move followed by a soak or dip and rip after weakness etc.) the less edge there is. Like TOP I'd rather be safe than sorry, no I'm not here saying I got long and easy money to go long could have stuffed and died at any moment that's never the point with these. Point is, writing was on the wall and if you fight, stay aggressive and "see what it does" at the end of the day you're basically signing a contract with yourself that you're good with the outlier risk potential. Yes, it won't always go crazy and many of them fail but if it's checking the boxes and you get stubborn it is what it is. Ideally squeeze out morning gap and fade off through day. We'll see and be SUPER cautious off open if you see things soak/stuff and not confirm trend.
Failed Follow Through:
SPRY I am going to need to see this move away from the channel that it's been stuck in - drew the lines on Friday they worked really well from that short idea. The cover spot was what made the trade if no covers it would have been super minimized. Patience and in my eyes if we gap up and ramp we can fade through the day if it ha a weak open I'd be looking for swipe for r/g move.
CVNA great preparation on the broadcast likely get one more good fade before it has a relief rally and picks a trend. Great prep last two days. Higher better and fade vs. VWAP or key levels from prior day.
PLTR higher better and unwind - great example of looking left on daily.
DRMA killer entry on Friday - started waited for blow out on the key line given and never saw higher. Let them prove you do NOT need to be first in.
HOOK higher better $1.80 has been key to assume holds and interested if it breaks. I'd say that rotated a lot of sellers out and shorts in and held pretty well - ideally see a blow out move before giving edge again. Ideally like TIO set up or IBRX this past week.
IPA held some over - nice idea mid afternoon for dip buys. Has a history of big runs but if it doesn't follow through I would want to move along before giving much back. Lately carrying a balance on any swings hasn't really been rewarded. It most cases it's been good to just sell everything prior to close.