This week has been about intense focus — there are countless opportunities every day but if you can’t zone in on one or two names, GOOD LUCK !!
Three things to cover right away before we get into scan for tomorrow !!
1. Thursday is Benzinga Trading Summit Use my code IUVIP at BZTradingSummit.com! to get 50% of your ticket! Excited to see you there!
2. Post conference #LucciMeets
3. LASTLY three ? yea three years in the making CAM !! He did it, our first intermediate course is out on YouTube. Yes, only took three years from the beginners course. Hey, it’s been busy around here 🙂 Enjoy !!
Every morning last week I brought it to two main watches with a few secondary watches on the back burner. IN FACT, out of the gate I was NOT planning to trade anything as of 905-920AM many mornings. Most times I like to react to what happens off the open with a pretty good game plan made at 9-905AM but this week things were sorta 50/50 during that planning stage so, instead, I didn’t try to force anything and waited …. waited …. waited … sure enough the order imbalances into open fired things up hit our goals for price action and provided some amazing opportunities CRWD, FVRR etc.
The range is INSANE right now. There’s been a few times I start into things early – which is fine b/c I am using anticipatory size ie: a size that despite being on the short side (or long) I want HIGHER (lower) which doesn’t make sense to many traders. Well if you’re short? Why do you want it higher? There is just so much range right now it’s not a I’m going to risk .20 cents to make .60-1.00 style market it’s a scale into a $1-2 upside move for the $5-10 fade (or break out if long). Make sense?
Here is the KEY !!!
DO NOT EXHAUST YOURSELF ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE MOVE !!
Too many times I’ve been dead right with game plan, thoughts, where it ends etc. But, guess what happens – I’ve started in too early, it hangs around longer than I thought maybe jumps around a bit more that I expected and I’m just happy to get flat, small game and move on. MEANWHILE the entire goal was to get $3-5/share more!
I’d associate these thoughts with CHWY on Friday – despite having a really nice trade on it, it could have been a LOT better. I always like to go back to my winners and figure out what I did wrong. I was scaling into the short slowly but I didn’t expect it to go much more than $40-40.50s it hung around $41 for a bit which caused me to second guess myself and rather than add I was already thinking about well, maybe I should come some into the flush and then look to re add etc vs. the overall thought I had all along which as spelled out in the room — 45 million shares vs. 5 million on FVRR, not sustainable, likely re-test of VWAP and make a plan from there etc.
So that’s what I did, covered too many into the flush re added into the ramp when I told the room I felt it was still heavy and we still had a few more bucks to go … and despite “nailing” the trade it was on about 1/3 the size that I WOULD have taken had I not “pre exhausted” my mental capacity in seeing things clearly.
Make sense?
In a nutshell – with range like this just always remember you’re not going to miss the trade. It’s ok to wait, there’s PLENTY of opportunities on both side. If you get too involved too soon you’re going to be thinking with emotions vs. the trade plan at hand and where it fits into your categories/strategies etc and thus emotionless.
Here’s the video game plan:
Here’s the written game plan:
CHWY super super heavy on Friday all day even into the rally midday and close it was heavy. It reminded me a lot of the LK tape on IPO (which we did a YouTube video on you can review). To me, any big gap up will be met with sell pressure post morning action. I say post morning action because even if this thing looks ugly coming into 9AM + you’ll be surprised how quickly the order imbalances can switch the tape and suggest a much different trade. So, going in with an open mind here – more comments 9AM in the room and off open based on action.
FVRR thinking this can easily push $2-3 since it came in on air into the close but then look for it to fade back – going to be extra cautious here with a bias and just look to react to what we’re given. It was a great week on the name reacting to the big moves but most importantly not trying to nail the entire move but rather locking into the big candles (except Friday of course I guess I could have used some more patience huh?)
CRWD volume way down from prior days so once again important not to fight the trade with size you’d use prior days because that’s how you run into trouble. Really good reads on this in the room last week, especially Friday on the short off open para, midday vs $70s and again into the close. I’d be looking for some re-test towards $65-66 ideally before looking to fade it. Otherwise weak open and failed follow through for more fade. We’ll see – again huge range don’t really need to come with a full game plan since we make them on these around 9AM on the daily screen share & broadcast.
RVLV so far working well, some nice wicks like we’ve talked about in prior scans watching all dips cautiously has that $45-50 maybe $60 kinda look to it – sorta like JMIA on the front side. Even if I don’t get there long (which I did on Friday and sold a bit early) I will be a cheerleader for higher because the back side move on JMIA was INSANE. Don’t lose track of these!
ZM Every day has been great – as long as there is range I am interested. I’d like to be trading the next $10 move which I think is close. Whether it’s $5 and $5 or an $8-10 day I don’t know but feels like $110 or $90 is the next leg on this chart.
ROKU nice fader into the close – higher better and back to $90s ideally
KURA nice off open but this is one of those types I call “transitional days” where I think the real move will be the next 2-3 days so I will be looking to join 945-10AM +
PUYI hit scan Friday – interesting volume last month if they get a PR going and some 5-10 mil share days like SOLY this could be a really nice one. For now, spreads suck, volume sucks – it’s just a name to be familiar with.
LK ideally squeeze out on $20 then fade off again, Impressive range daily.
WKHS possible launch this week if forms base $2.50 again $3-3.50 + again would be goal – what a gift off last Sunday’s scan huh?
PD good range staying familiar – tough with volume but will be looking for outlier days.
JFIN back on radar just in case – thin IPO getting scooped back up, good chance it just fails and goes back to $10 but just in case volume sticks and trend holds – can easily put in a few back to back $3-5 days.
CTRV total trash – can’t even get their filings straight which can also cause a lot of shorts to bet against and if it stays thin, put out the right PRs anything is possible. For now, assume trash and avoid but if it gets 2-5 mil share day again – don’t take off radar. They’ve trained shorts well.
The next names on scan all are potential unwinder set ups
NTNX higher better $26 +and fade – nice unwind Friday
HOME this type I like to watch all .10-.20 + moves off open that fail/find resistance into 9:45AM-10AM + and then fade them red (until it doesn’t work).
MNK same thing as HOME
TEN higher better and unwind $8-9 near term
TEVA those $7 puts that went off last week starting to look like they may happen – higher better for back side. This could be $7-7.50 near term and really get unwinding if volume picks up
MNST morning shove vs $62 until it firms up and bases I’ll assume seller is present
SWAV staying on radar – so far each day plan has been morning shove for back side and working well, problem is volume is no good so it’s difficult to size/scale.
PLAY if $40 keeps failing it may need $37-38 before any reversal – watching to join next leg.
MU if it can’t rebound and over all market gets a bit heavy perhaps $28-30 near term.
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