We’re heading into one of the most important weeks of this cycle with a major shift coming from the PDT rule change on Thursday, which is likely to inject even more liquidity and volatility into small caps.
At the same time, the market continues to broaden out beyond semis into PCs, software, mid-caps, and speculative themes like space and quantum.
Yields coming down a bit and oil pulling back are acting as tailwinds, while “animal spirits” are clearly back with aggressive retail participation, headline-driven moves, and multi-day runners becoming more common.
This is a trader’s market with opportunity on both sides, but especially on the long side if you understand squeezes, liquidity traps, and momentum continuation.
Expect bigger moves, faster cycles, and more crowding into hot themes as we push into a catalyst-heavy stretch with the SpaceX IPO on deck next week.
Video & Game Plan
Main Watches
XOM – On watch for a potential big picture breakdown if oil continues to weaken and breaks key support levels.
USO – Proxy for oil; continued downside if crude pulls back further on easing geopolitical pressure.
ENPH – Strong multi-leg runner; watching for either continued consolidation into another leg higher or failed follow-through if it loses key levels.
FCEL – Ran with AI energy theme; continuation possible if it holds and consolidates, otherwise watching for fft.
ASTC – Perfect example of the new small-cap environment with extreme multi-day squeezes; expect more charts like this.
LUNR – Space name holding strong despite negative news; shows strength of the overall space theme.
RKLB / Space names – In play into SpaceX IPO; potential continuation followed by eventual mean reversion.
RGTI – Quantum name consolidating after a strong move; bullish continuation if the market stays hot.
QUBT / IONQ – Part of the quantum basket; IONQ is showing relative strength and leading the group.
NOW – Software bounce off lows; part of broader sector rotation into beaten-down names.
INTU – Potential sympathy bounce if software strength continues despite weak prior trend.
UMAC / RCAT – Drone theme gaining traction on domestic production narrative; continuation candidates.
DELL – Major earnings winner; strength confirms AI trade expanding into hardware/PC space.
HOOD – One of the best swing long setups into the PDT rule change; increased retail activity could drive strong upside. Looking to enter calls.
ORCL – Big reversal and breakout; benefiting from renewed interest in software and AI infrastructure.
ARM – Running into potential NVIDIA-related news; continuation or sell-the-news setup depending on catalyst.
IBM – Gaining attention from political mentions; headline-driven momentum in a hot market.
PLTR – Similar thematic tailwinds as IBM; tied to AI + political narrative momentum.
LITE / Optics names – Showing relative weakness; potential downside if sector rotation continues.
HIVE – Steady strength within compute/crypto-adjacent theme; slow continuation setup.
SPRC – Small cap liquidity trap setup; watching for second leg higher after consolidation.
META – Positive reaction to potential subscription monetization; watching for continuation.
MSFT – Big upcoming AI/PC catalyst; breakout setup with continuation via calls on dips.
INTC – Potential laggard; could see rotation out as capital moves into stronger AI names.
DEVS / HUBC / STG – Small-cap liquidity trap candidates; watching for multi-day squeeze setups.
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