Happy 4th to July week to everyone!
Last week did exactly what we talked about on Sunday’s video – the slower vol walk up into quarter end to window dress portfolios. Huge market move on Friday.
My daughter’s birthday is July 4th. She made it by about 30 seconds otherwise would have been a July 5th baby.
This is the one week each year that I try my best to be detached from markets during the day as much as I can and spend time with my family.
Sidenote: My wife signed us up for a 5K Monday at 8 AM so I’ll likely be late to the desk.
We have a half day Monday (which is opposite what I said last week, I was wrong) and then fully off Tuesday. Here’s the secret to disconnecting: Plan these small goals on weeks where you have a day off and a bonus half day thrown in.
So far this year, it’s been eh, February was my best month. I was pushing hard high conviction style market for me. Last few months there is no shortage of action and the broadcast has been fantastic every day, but that’s what it’s been about for me. Get prepared, make a plan pre-market, and execute. The full-day unwinder-type trades are obviously not happening in this market. When they do, I’ll be ready, until then, I have one goal: BEHAVE.
There’s NO shortage of plays, it’s just hard to get confidence scaling any size because if you’re wrong there’s not much ability to exit until the next liquidity pocket is met. But, in markets like this swing traders and dip buyers (on every dip) far outperform.
The biggest thing I want you to take away from the video tonight is the discussion on being only as good as your cover, which I will talk about.
Most of the $ I’ve made in my career (wealth build vs. income) has been on the long side despite popular belief since I am seen as a ‘shorter’ only. It was just like this in the 2020-2021 markets when I really skyrocketed the IRA and compounded gains left and right. So, I know how much people can build up in these markets since this is the same sorta market that I did it — I just have less motivation and have been trying to work on proper balance as we shift into IU version 2.0 over the course of the next year. Let me tell you, I’m pretty excited about what we have been planning and have coming.
Those who are members have seen how much we’ve re-invested into IU – from data feeds, news, scanners, and incredible technology that Max has been building. It takes time, but as you’ve seen, the tools are top-notch and start to save you money on all the other subscriptions and tools you pay for. Check out the interview with Max if you haven’t already.
Video Topics:
- Short Week
- Market Melt Up (Qtr End)
- Be Aware (Market)
- Only As Good As Your Cover
- IMUX vs. AAOI
- Traders4ACause 2 Weeks (Tickets)
Video Scan and Game Plan
Stocks to Watch
AAOI nice one on Friday did what I was hopeful of just ran out of time, same concept as the IMUX trade which instead held on. Ideally we get another good push and then fade off thinking one more shake out before this could just soak like GSIT AMAM APLD and all the others we’ve seen do the same move, shake out a few times and hold for a month + before the exit comes and they walk away.
CCL nice trader last few days as long as you cover. If you’re trying to be a hero and nail entire trade it doesn’t work so well.
PLTR daily driver/reactive trade type watch for relative strength/weakness for direction.
Failed Follow Through:
VBIV big big alert by TradeHawk under $2 Friday before going straight up. I’d like to see a blow out of shorts off open then possible fade through day.
APLD higher better for back side – thinking we have one more shove before it finally gives it back.
IMUX similar concept to Friday’s trade. Ideally higher better and back side – just take a quick look at the history before you say “It doesn’t make sense” this has been a known grinder in past.
Continuation:
BXRX nice levels on Friday $1.10 being the key for the trap but they never triggered any squeeze into close which was the ultimate goal for the trade. It faded off after hours, I kept some just in case it had follow through but clearly didn’t. So, we’ll see like MGOL and rest if trend pushes but ultimately rejects I’ll bail on rest.
JOBY for now I have under continuation side of things because it’s been soaking pretty well and if it doesn’t go down or has a weak open and sets up for r/g we have a chance for a decent squeeze. That said under key levels given on Friday I’ll be looking to fade if it confirms.
RIVN nice idea for Friday, weak open for red/green.
CNXA under accumulation have a position but still don’t love it until .25 breaks
WAVE potential liquidity trap
Staying Familiar:
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