Before I forget! Las Vegas tickets for Traders4ACause go on sale TOMORROW! Last year we sold out in 24 hours. While we are in a much different market than we were a year ago I still do expect demand. So, if you're planning to go I would recommend securing the ticket ASAP as we intend to keep these events intimate so people can have more time to network and speak 1:1 with different traders of their choosing. We are going to have some really neat options this year including a dinner with different traders (all to benefit charity of course). We will be adding more dinners as we confirm speakers as well.
Had the big home run trade on ILAG this week - hopefully more like that in coming weeks. MRNA was great off NVAX but NVAX was the true home run and I completely fumbled the obvious trade. Perhaps too obvious? Was a sell the news set up and despite participating small I figured I was chasing the obvious idea and took the trade off only to watch it fade another $12-15/share.
After ORMP and a few others the second part of the week was pretty much sit on hands and behave. I've been taking off when things slow.
Markets continue to get soaked up -- especially bio runners. The thing to remember here is these names have come WAY down and they are not small cap discord P&D's they are real companies with real players involved.
VERU SIGA really nice break outs continue ORMP offered a major trade POST EXHAUSTION - key word post - after - not before - patience continuing to be a key factor in this tape. The difference between what happened on ORMP and what hasn't happened on RYTM TH GOSS is why there hasn't been a scale trade yet so far.
RYTM TH GOSS each time they SHOULD have cracked they held. Each level given came back - checked in and reclaimed upon FIRST attempt. We went over the trap many times in the room late week so hopefully the concept is starting to make sense regarding why it's not good to add add add as you'll end up getting worked out. I will go over it again on the video - and the WHY.
EVTL another great example of 'shoulda died' I saw a lot of traders going back to short each bounce but when a stock flushes out hard and then gets soaked back up be cautious going right back to it.
The similarities between all the chop names last week vs. the ones that paid out can be determined for FREE. What do I mean?
All levels given NEVER confirmed failed follow through.
All names we were watching for never had the EXHAUSTION move (ie: what we saw on ORMP where it comes in and STAYS HEAVY).
It's FREE to see if it stays heavy (just like GOSS TH commentary etc.)
Just remember that - either could cost you a bunch trying to find the top or just wait for the day the tape shifts.
- Shorts Or Sellers?
- No Forced Set Ups
- Channels / Emotions
- Conviction From Big Picture
- No Trade Is OKAY
Video Scan and Game Plan
Stocks to Watch
VERU trade continues to squeeze out - the only interest I have in these names is AFTER an exhaustion move happens or sub VWAP failed follow through momentum trend join. Reactive like ORMP or steady scale vs. prior resistance 945-10AM+
SIGA right up against key level again. Break out continues - assume dips get soaked until it speeds up unless we have a gap and exchange.
AMC continues to be a daily drive - each mornings broadcast levels been a good starting point - had some great entries last few days but wanted more (I was too patient) so ended up not booking the nice unwinds.
TH continues - levels continue to prove. Real buyers in tape. Each weakness day stays firm - either need a quiet fade day to join or some sorta blow off of the stubborn. I believe there have been many quietly adding to their bad trade.
EVTL ideally gaps and blows off then looking to fade it back down. If we start getting the wicks like we talk about Mon/Tues watch for nice T+2 set up forming by Tues/Weds.
Failed Follow Through:
NEXI kept longs feeling okay all day and got shorts to move out before letting it fade late day. Thinking gap down but ideally not too far any good shoves will be looking for fade. This is an example of the crowded names where shorts come in and close out before EOD and usually move is postponed a day or two.
RYTM nothing to step in front - this can hold up so don't think it HAS to fade this is not just small cap trash like 99% of the other runners. Look at ORMP etc. I am looking for THE exchange day and unwind day to take advantage and then move on.
CLNN higher better - I think they've exhausted out some shorts past 2 days - I sized out when I said in room before I left early on Friday otherwise I probably would have lost .30-.40/share on this thing as it definitely held better than I would have imagined.
GOEV held this one again - but locked a bunch in at close just in case they fire out another PR since this is a clear promotion on silly PRs. Filings are obvious - which is likely why it held so well b/c everyone was already positioned for the inevitable. I like the way it traded on Friday working out the too aggressively sized before fading out into close.
ILAG I think they cleaned this up on Friday did the rebound early then faded it down into close and starting to inch it back up AHs. I think we'll have a 30-50% bounce at some point before they walk again and it fades off to nothing - standard liquidation play.
FFIE minimal left from the swing idea.
SKYX daily chart set up but lower volume so once again as I said Friday early in day liked dips vs $2.90s but would not chase it unfortunately only have tiny as it just grinded higher all day was hopeful for better opp -- looks like steady soak since the 1.5M volume day. This either triggers $4 on daily and pops or one massive fail - so not a chase.
SOUN similar set up either going to have one big break out over $4 for an opp or one major fail but you can see the soak - similar chart. No position just will set price alerts.
APRE volume day got soaked - watch all dips vs $1.10.
VRM watch if it builds vs $1.50s no position.
MREO clear soak - can see wicks we talk about. Good example of a fund likely positioning letting things paly out and then coming back to it. "Transition day" I call it.