Hope everyone had a great weekend!
Fishing trip this weekend and caught dinner!
Video Topics
- AMTD Last week
- VLCN Levels Early
- New Short Trap I’ve Noticed
- Max Stop Discussion – Too Proud?
- Opportunity Cost
- Thin Tape Changing
- Scrolling Back Through Charts
QUESTION: When you choose an area to stop out, such as 109$ in your short trade in COIN on Thursday August 4th, and you say you plan to stop out at that level IF the price begins to base at that price, what would you do if the price scoops through that level really fast and continues without basing. What do you need to see to scrap the trade in a situation like that?
QUESTION: Nate you seem to have an incredible sense of current market conditions which you update some weeks but not always. What do you need to see for you to change your mind on conditions? Is it the change in the duration of runners, or what time of day they put in their tops, or just the way the most recent gainer behaved? Thanks
Giveaway Winners
- John Smith – T-Shirt
- Hai On Stock – T-Shirt
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Video Scan and Game Plan
Stocks to Watch
OXY huge move after the Buffet clearance on Friday. Got a good piece of it late day for the quick trade and that’s how it needs to be (for me). This in the past has been a great trader – typically very clean entries but it does just enough to want you to scale in and hold for more before it grinds you back to your entry. Based on how I trade it – typically entries are VERY good but MOST times I have to be aware of TOO MUCH patience – take the lay up and move on.
DNAA was a midday discord pump on Friday which was super easy to borrow at every broker. As you saw it closed well off the highs and most who chased it got smacked by close. That said – redemptions hit after hours and there is a good chance that 1. Those who shorted it intraday and didn’t cover before close got caught and 2. Those who leaned into it after hours on the first pop or second and add add added — got smoked out. Really nice mover — I traded it into the final 15 minutes with the thesis that everyone who got smoked would close out their positions prior to 8PM and then they’d pull the bid. I think new ticker Monday — but we should have a really big opportunity. I think it was just a perfect storm of shorts fading the pump intraday getting stuck then adding and getting blown out. I could see it unwinding to flat or lower.
BBBY the bull thesis is entirely gone. Ryan Cohen was the savior and entire bull thesis. No matter what perma longs say to defend it now etc this is an even thicker stock. It went up when Cohen held nearly 10 mil shares and nearly 5 million shares in Freeman’s hands. Not only did they sell – also some insiders did too. Higher better and looking for $5-7 short term.
AMC the big ol’ dividend is coming – another game by the CEO to get around the inability to raise and came up with a new solution to print stock. Here’s the thing – when AMC was running up last time $17-18 was expensive then it had earnings and ramped up because Apes think it’s good to get an “Ape Dividend” and thus even more retail bought at silly prices again. So, going back to where was it before e/r and was it already up a lot into it? Yes! So, don’t underestimate how far this can unwind possibly $12-14 short term. Once it turns it’ll become crazy thick too just like you saw on BBBY.
Failed Follow Through:
VLCN big one on Friday – Love to see some push on Monday but I doubt it gets very far. I covered into close used the $2.70 support line and $3.10 exhaustion spot all day to guide through the trade. Likely fades back to where it came from. Friday’s PR was the one they can get away with because everyone puts down a deposit with no intention of actually buying. Then when it comes down to it they get the refund and never buy. So, to me – this was just a liquidity PR for shareholders in the ‘know’ to get liquid before they run out of cash and need to raise more in the short term.
GCT really nice one on Friday — straight $15 bucks/share from the fade early — and then once again held trend all day before puking AHs. Personally I THINK this opens $38 range and fades to mid $20s but I am HOPEFUL that it opens $45 + and gives a good opportunity for fade. I think in everyone’s mind this was “next HKD” and in shorts mind even the .001% chance had them bothered and took exposure off into the final 30 minutes hence the bid into close. That said I think most short exposure is gone and they likely exited majority into close. If it holds oddly well after it flushes out obviously adapt! DON’T FORCE A THESIS TO PLAY OUT!
CVNA Nice idea on Friday for full day unwinder – these quiet ones are always nice – same concept AFRM and the rest that have run up similar.
MARA with BTC as always – clean fader on Friday should have played a lot bigger but was focused on leaving early, what can ya do!
LMND higher better and failed follow through
SNAP trend join vs. VWAP
SIGA trend join vs. VWAP
Continuation:
MSPR like chart – started small on Friday nothing I’m too excited about but if it trends/continues I’d scale.
LMFA watching to see if dips build
Staying Familiar:
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