Well after hours got pretty interesting today and changes the dynamic for tomorrow quite a bit now. North Korea is launching missiles all over the place again like f#&$^ing idiots, and they seem to have crossed the line this time and have Japan & other up in arms. The market action confirmed this, as $SPY got absolutely whacked nearly 2 points an hour after close.
What I meant by this changes the dynamic for tomorrow is that anytime there’s big macro news like this, individual momentum names tend to slow down, and the focus shifts towards commodities & ETFs. So expect $UVXY $VXX $TVIX $NUGT $JNUG $DUST $USO all that stuff to be more prominent tomorrow. Personally not my favorite stuff to trade, especially in a volatile unpredictable situation like this – one Trump tweet and everything could go completely haywire at any moment, so have to be on high alert tomorrow. If it does turn into an ETF day, I’ll likely scale back and trade small as that is not my A game.
SNAP: I thought we were going to reject yesterdays highs and it was finally time to start the descent lower here, but clearly not. 15.30s was the next technical spot on this chart which is exactly where we tested today, & if not for the N Korea stuff, we’d probably still be up there. (SNAP pulled a/h some with everything else). It’s kind of starting to feel like we need a climactic rush towards 17 now before reversal. Plan remains same, and I continue to approach this trade day-by-day based on the open action. Stay cautious and no fighting this yet.
UVXY: If I do get involved in the ETF trades, this is usually my weapon of choice. Remember the key here is catch the decay trade. Assuming Trump doesn’t say anything outlandish tomorrow, I expect the market to stabilize & will be eyeing UVXY for a short. Ideal situation for me is we wake up to a market gap down (UVXY gap up) , get a weak open trap out of market & rebound day which would result in an nice UVXY decay short. We’ll see what it looks like in the morning & I’ll send some tweets out about thoughts on it then.
AVEO: Some really nice selling this morning and then SSR to the rescue…grind grind grind from there sent it all the way back up. Felt weak into close – ideally an open pop to a 4 re-test & fail there, but SSR will be on all day again tmrw. so the play may be a dud altogether, especially if a weak open trap & ramp back.
JUNO: Just kind of felt crowded today after the open to me..I think it wants lower, and will be interested in any open strength back to a re-test of the mid 37s area for failed follow thru and ss there.
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See you out there!
– D
