On Watch 08/15/17 from Dante

 

TEVA: Starting to slowly take shape..emphasis on slowly, this is what happens when everyone wants the same trade. Had super long crowd feel today, I took a small loss on it. Got excited with the gap up + early push thought today was the day. Two things in particular still support the bounce idea soon to me. 1) The volume was lighter yet again today & been decreasing, makes me think AGN is getting close to being done unloading, they were much less aggressive today I kept a close eye on tape. 2) Fri we bottomed 16.80s, today we bottomed 17.10s higher low on daily, that’s encouraging. Don’t marry this idea though..remember the reality of the situation is they’re still in big trouble. This is a technical bounce idea, fundamentals do not agree here yet, so it may never materialize. I operate under the “its a short until it’s not” policy on weak names like this, but that said, nothing to get stubborn on & r/r does still favor the long idea right now. 

SNAP: I’m not gonna say I knew it this morning…..but dammit I knew it lol. Tweeted a warning out premarket and was talking to Eric about it, that I just couldn’t bring myself to chase it short pre & out the gate (E had a boatload o/n & covered all into the open dump btw – very impressive once again). I figured if there were going to be games, they’d come today – an SSR day, everyone excited the next round of lockup shares are out, weak premarket & weak open action, shorts piled in not wanting to miss the fade, then BAM. Turned everyone’s world upside down. I like my stocks like I like my women – easy but not too easy 😉 So SNAP’s got a little fight in it, so be it. Higher the better. Then it just traded in a .02c range all afternoon, attention whore, and honestly I’m not sure what to expect come tomorrow morning, it’s wound up pretty tight. Open action will guide my bias tomorrow, keep an eye on my twitter feed I’ll have something to say about what I’m seeing out of the gate & where I think the trade is.

WTW: Proud to say I did not make a daily donation here today. Almost got that 50 handle inflection point we were looking for today, and it was met with some good selling as it approached that area. The close looked pretty good too, nice lower highs & walk down into the bell. Is tomorrow the day it unravels? Who knows. I’ll be eyeing it, I’d much rather see an open push than an open dump. WTW morning weakness almost always leads to a trap & ramp back. So if we get a push out of the gate back towards today’s intraday resistance ~49ish, it’ll have my attention and I’ll be watching for a fail around there to join a trend lower.

CSIQ: Canadian Solar…ugh. I’ve hated everything about this company for a long time. Don’t think it deserves at all to be where it is, and I don’t think solar will ever be as big as people think it’s going to be. They reported ER this morning, nothing good imo. Their numbers are up from last quarter, but down quite a bit off last years same Q numbers. The most important part of the report to me and the reason it sold off on an “earnings beat” this morning, was the guidance. The street was looking for revs of $1.04B and they guided $805-825M, that’s a big guide down. We’ll see what it looks like in the morning, but I’m looking for failed follow thru on the attempted rebound today & for a short trade on the name. 

HTZ: Same story different day, as mentioned in scan yesterday, be aware of the weak open & ramp back, and that’s exactly what it did. This charade will end sooner or later, but near term…ugh, extremely difficult short. $20 is an interesting spot here now though, nice round number, some daily resistance from back in February, lets see if this can kill it. I think the way I’ll approach this is wait for first red day, then attack pops the following session.

CRDS: I can’t tell you the last time I traded a smallcap name. I really can’t. And that’s my niche. They’ve been so dead. CVM was a huge miss today on my part, annoyed about that one, great fader. But this CRDS is showing some promise, nice grind today, looking for a blowoff para move into 2.50-2.75 area to short with a 3 guide. But there has to be volume, I’m not getting involved with it if the volume doesn’t show up. Low liquidity, low float smallcaps I avoid like the plague. This one is…890K float if I’m seeing that right? See 1.04M on Finviz, either way, its insanely low. So needs volume & liquidity or a complete avoid for me. Fingers crossed we get that for tomorrow.

 

 

If you’re not an IU member and would like to become one, there’s still a sale going on here, shoot me a PM anytime in chat (DGTrading101 is my IU handle) and I’m happy to discuss trade ideas with you.

See you out there.

– D

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