It's been an amazing year for volatility, and I'm not sure if I am just adapting as a trader or if it's just one of the wildest runs we've had with countless opportunities each day. This market is all about analyzing everything that's moving in the morning plus your watch list and narrowing down the top watches for the day.
Top watches can be different for everyone, as you should play you what you are MOST successful at. If you're better at shorting, than knock out all the trades that have no volume and don't look like they're going to pan out for the short that day. Focus on the best opportunities at hand that fit you strengths. Same thing if you're looking for long opportunities. Take the 10-12 watches you have and bring it to 2-3 main watches and FOCUS.
Two main struggles for me which I've been working on overcoming are:
1. Snap back and reclaim: This is the same as the 2015 flaws post where I size into a trade and it reverses trend. If you realize that things are beginning to reverse, knowing that you can ALWAYS re-add the second you cover can help combat this. Most people are willing to turn a big win into a little one, or even a loss, just to save $5 bucks commission. Think about it - nothing wrong with getting out or sizing down if it's not doing what you think. Just add it right back once it continues on with what you were anticipating.
2. Patience: I've been too patient at times. Part of really excelling as a trader is being patient, but sometimes you can be too patient. If you tell people you were up $1K, $5K or even $10-20K and then the trade went to flat or red, most people will tell you that you're crazy, greedy and an idiot - but are you? Or was it part of the plan? Was that $1k or $5k gain just one snap away from $5 to $20k gain? Than you did nothing wrong - SOMETIMES patience doesn't work but it's what you do when the trade reverses that matters.
As I've said time and time again -- the key is to never stop learning! I've picked up so many things re-reading MomoTraders. It's about taking a little bit from everyone and molding to your own type of trader.
Today was a fun day. One trade that I've been having some serious success with (especially in this market) is the "failed follow through momentum" trade. This can be either on a gap up or gap down but has two key elements. 1) Its a big over extended chart that's been having trouble with pushing higher or 2) it's under major chart support and very close to what I call an "unwind."
The failed follow through momentum is really about starting in small into the morning pop with an educated risk on an over extended chart and then looking for a key level (prior base) to start to peak out. Then, add in accordingly with set risk on prior top. CTRP trade was a perfect example of that today.
The "unwind" style play can be seen on charts like VRX, ENDP, AMBA, VMW and most recently MW. It's the charts that are testing major chart support and, what I prefer, is it's UNDER it, then re-test a prior top, FAIL, re-test, fail ... and start to speed up to the downside. This was seen on VRX where it continually failed. The idea is that everyone is buying the dip, adding, adding and no real plan for risk. Well, when it doesn't bounce much, it tries to turn, pushes up, fails again at a lower level and turns into a bouncing ball type of move (basketball analogy we discuss in webinars). It keeps testing the floor and eventually snaps under it forcing all those without a plan to bail, market sell, panic and washout.
I will cover a few of the trades I made today discussing the type of trade on each! These are my main three trading accounts (I had a few other VRX trades and DNR gapper in Fidelity and my LT Etrade account)
(Since it doesn't break down PnL you can see trades HERE)
CTRP failed follow through momentum
As you can see here I started into the trade - using $105 as the guide on the initial trade. I took a starter and it immediately came back and re-tested $102.50s where they sold into it heavily (hidden) and slammed it right back down. It started to pull back a bit re-tested $102.50s and peaked out yet again.
In the chart above, you can't see all adds, but I added in Etrade once this key area of support 101.50 (which tested, re-tested and tested again) failed. Once it was over/under that level of $101, I can add all day with proper risk set off the $102 level. As we saw on QUNR recently these things have just been jumping around, squeezing randomly, and then selling off more than you know (if you were unaware, the two ran together on the news just last week).
Once $96.50s put in two bottoms and held, I ran out of patience and went ahead and took the trade.
AVXL is an example of well just a crowded long side mess.
This has been one of the most talked about names in the past few weeks. It was holding remarkable gains when it was on the OTC preparing for the uplist to Nasdaq. They did a 4:1 reverse split which typically runs for a few days and then craters once everyone starts to get their shares back, but they planned this one pretty nicely as the uplist approval came shortly after and it didn't stop there. They had news pending, which couple it all together, gave one of the best story stocks in a long time -- unfortunately roasting longs the past few days.
The reason this play was so aggressive to the downside is that they painted such a great story to unsuspecting investors so smart money was able to not only unload all last week to early shorts and new investors but even this morning as well! They put a positive spin on meaningless data and fully took advantage of all retail buyers pre market.
Fortunately for us, it came right into the wheel house, providing some nice opportunities to get short at $10.40-10.50s. Who was buying? No idea, likely emotional longs "afraid" to miss the move and early shorts panic covering into the break out. Long story short the pump worked, they got a nice squeeze and it's going to be a LONG, slow and steady grind back to where it came from over the next six months. I mentioned a few weeks back that AVXL would likely end just like PVCT (same cult style longs, same uplist story, and same data pending story) before the house came falling in.
It's been a wild week. Eric and Phil had their most amazing weeks ever in their trading careers on this name alone! I wish more people would pay attention and learn from these guys and many others that put out the warnings. It's unfortunate that longs are too far gone to even care what the reality is and will defend this thing all the way back to .50 cents. But hey, without them we wouldn't have had the opportunity. At least the warning signs were there. The unwind trade:
MU was another example of the failed follow through momentum but this time on an unwinder style chart below chart support. I got short into pops of MU once I saw a top at the top green line drawn on the chart.
Once MU cracked under the bottom green line I can add on all pops with a risk on the prior highs and just wait for the bounce players to calm until it nears that $16. Then we start to unwind and snap sub whole number levels providing a nice profit opportunity.
Please enjoy the following video recap of today's trading:
Chat logs below if you have any questions reach out!
05:40:47 ammarcissa: gm
05:57:30 amd4ytrad3: gm
06:01:40 amd4ytrad3: NASDAQ:EXXI) today announced financial and operating results for the three months ended September 30, 2015 (fiscal 2016 first quarter), and provided an operations update. Highlights include:Production continues to be stable 1Q 2016 net oil production averaged 42,200 barrels per day1Q 2016 total net production averaged 58,900 barrels equivalent per dayLease Operating Expenses (LOE) decreased 34% year over year $94 million in 1Q 2016, decreased from $142 million in 1Q 2015Over $890 million in face-value debt retired in 2015 to-dateAnnualized interest savings of approximately $65 million, ~$3.00 per barrel of oil equivalent (BOE)Total liquidity of $510 million
06:26:13 ammdguymh: gm
06:29:21 amgigantebaba: RDHL mkting approval of rizaport in Europe
06:46:24 amd4ytrad3: LOLOL at this headline: *DJ Arch Coal 3Q Loss/Shr $93.91 >ACI(Dow Jones 11/09 06:45:07)
06:46:51 amd4ytrad3: *DJ Arch Coal 3Q Loss $2B >ACI(Dow Jones 11/09 06:46:03)
06:48:21 amburdanosul: gm all
06:51:17 amCounterpunch: gm all
07:00:25 amj1alex: gm folks
07:01:21 amd4ytrad3: AVXL the show begins
07:01:47 amburdanosul: 🙂
07:05:24 amFozzie: guess that headline was better then expected lol ACI
11:46:38 amInvestorsLive: didn't mean the $ sign oopz
11:47:45 amInvestorsLive: so far LOD area on WTW been holding tough can lock in some gains from the re adds post 24.20 peak -- can always re add if LOD cracks and holds as well
11:48:56 amzerix: XOMA 1.60s
11:49:50 amzerix: VRX volume
11:51:44 amcurtisw184: VRX per ackman is going to announce new pharmacyt to replace philador
11:51:54 amcurtisw184: maybe as early as in tomorrow's CC
11:52:10 amInvestorsLive: covered 1/3 WTW 2420-2420 ... 24-2380s adds just to ease up on some of the whipsaw w/ size
11:53:04 amd4ytrad3: pressing uvxy ss
11:53:22 amInvestorsLive: CTRP !! yes sir
11:53:50 amsamink: added more STRP
11:54:35 amMuddy: HZNP near red
11:54:52 amSavino: Long GNC 32.02 avg...
11:55:00 amMuddy: MEETon 52s test
11:56:39 amOddStockTrader: started ss XOMA
11:56:49 amgerard98: FOLD lod
11:57:28 amTheDarkKnightReturns: MW looking for 22 test
11:57:52 amMuddy: XOMA 1.7
12:01:15 pmMuddy: WATT again
12:01:23 pmInvestorsLive: done w/ MU re short nice joib
12:01:34 pmBulrathi: FTK close to lows
12:01:52 pmArsenal: WTW nLOD
12:02:13 pmMuddy: ACI too
12:03:07 pmMattdelong90: PCL retesting HOD
12:03:17 pmMattdelong90: 47
12:04:25 pmbkam77: TVIX parabolic
12:05:37 pmInvestorsLive: all coverede CTRP +6 ish
12:05:41 pmInvestorsLive: mostly covered WTW
12:05:43 pmInvestorsLive: 1/3 left
12:07:38 pmkam14: LXU more pull
12:11:50 pmMuddy: MEET 52s hit
12:14:04 pmd4ytrad3: mkt setting up first buy sig of the day - might be decent if you didnt try and knife catch earlier
12:18:41 pmInvestorsLive: all cash
12:19:08 pmOddStockTrader: 1/3 XOMA cov.
12:20:52 pmprotraderinbox: STRP pull
12:23:01 pmzerix: VRX perk off vwap
12:23:27 pmMuddy: CLDX upping back
12:24:09 pmInvestorsLive: VRX is still same plan as I wrote
12:24:57 pmcdr2006: FOLD pop
12:26:53 pmprotraderinbox: TWTR some perk
12:27:00 pmInvestorsLive: starting long VRX dips -- I want a big dip $81.50 as a guide to risk mental then add for $85 para $87-90 into close
12:27:24 pmInvestorsLive: if missed comments pre market on reasoning why feel free to check chat history nothing to get too biased on nothing to chase just a game plan with good r/r
12:27:31 pmBPTrader: ICON perk
12:27:40 pmGsky: Long TWTR with risk 26.7
12:28:28 pmSavino: SPY stabilzing.....
12:28:48 pmEmil: started in XOMA short risking hod
12:29:24 pmFozzie: ICON stuffy at vwap
12:30:02 pmKarlKazan: BLUE steady grind all day.
12:32:52 pmd4ytrad3: LXU left a good chunk on table
12:43:40 pmsamink: STRP bounce close
12:43:40 pmInvestorsLive: ideally WTW holds on b/c I'd really like this trade later but I'm taking off for a quick bit -- be back shortly
12:44:09 pmStuck_Trader: VRX slap
12:53:23 pmTheZar: SEAS ripping, can't find news. If anyone knows please share.
12:53:50 pmJimTilton: SeaWorld Entertainment plans to phase out show that features killer whales, according to San Diego Union Tribune
12:54:59 pmBulrathi: Ackman call over, they are off to lunch
12:57:04 pmSavino: NVDA making a move ... pushing
12:58:59 pmcarrionk: ss PCL 47.54 risk 47.6
12:59:05 pmd4ytrad3: LXU possible chart turn
01:00:22 pmSavino: SOld 2/3 GNC @ 32.16 +.14
01:01:28 pmSavino: well filled at 32.13 ...
01:02:36 pmcarrionk: LOCK leg down
01:02:54 pmSavino: sold the rest of GNC filleld again at 32.13 flat....
01:04:15 pmSavino: LOng YELP @ 24.88
01:05:06 pmcurtisw184: POT unusual call volume this week expiration over 10,000 calls 20.50 strike
01:08:13 pmtrader530: CANF upgraded to buy at zacks
01:09:57 pmd4ytrad3: RLYP weakning a bit
01:10:25 pmtrader530: 7.50 tgt on CANF
01:11:49 pmphislammajamma: VRX perk
01:11:59 pmcurtisw184: POT chatter on stocktwits about possible buyout by BHP
01:17:35 pmcarrionk: PCL nice
01:21:40 pmcarrionk: closed PCL +0.4
01:23:49 pmsamink: STRP 11.6 break key
01:24:36 pmrobertointernet: CANF green
01:25:05 pma01stockbros: VRX HOD test
01:26:13 pmsamink: STRP will add more 11.7 break
01:26:17 pmbigbentrader: start ss VRX
01:26:52 pmd4ytrad3: STRP key break
01:27:23 pmpedroesteban: YELP 25 test
01:31:35 pmj1alex: ERII perk
01:32:23 pmBLR3000: CANF green now
01:32:58 pmzerix: LXU perk
01:32:59 pmQtrader21: LXU push
01:33:05 pmjfrusty: LXU perk
01:33:09 pmtom666: MDVN ss 42.24
01:33:14 pmd4ytrad3: LXU added longside
01:33:23 pmj1alex: MU testing LOD
01:33:42 pmMuddy: AGIO 66 lod
01:34:31 pmsantrelli: CSTM cracked support, looking heavy
01:34:33 pmbigbentrader: VRX cover
01:36:53 pmbigbentrader: possible ABCD on FTK
01:37:57 pmSavino: Sold 2/3 YELP + .26
01:44:44 pmMuddy: LEXG more .30
01:48:18 pmd4ytrad3: STRP statement
01:48:43 pmKnoCapEnt: VRX $85. Test
01:48:44 pmd4ytrad3: claims have "NO MERIT" - licenses were Properly renewed in compliace w/ FCC rules'
01:48:53 pmsamink: bang
01:48:57 pmprotraderinbox: STRP nice push
01:49:10 pmzerix: WTW some slap
01:49:19 pmMuddy: STRP green
01:50:45 pmtom666: MDVN lap
01:52:52 pmbigbentrader: start short STRP at 15
01:53:31 pmrhhardy: ICON pull
01:53:42 pmJasonV13: MNK halted off Citron
01:53:43 pmStuck_Trader: MNK halt
01:53:45 pmLinasis: Citron @ MNK
01:54:03 pmLinasis: "At these prices MNK has significant more downside than VRX, Worse offender"
01:57:02 pmbigbentrader: tweet from Citron is like kiss of death
01:57:33 pmJimTilton: NSC chatter
01:57:45 pmInvestorsLive: back
01:57:52 pmInvestorsLive: GE nice push back
01:58:02 pmInvestorsLive: WTW remaining heavy -- like to scale back into this for EOD wash
01:58:53 pmzerix: MNK 50s
01:59:08 pmInvestorsLive: started long some MNK into wash
01:59:56 pmInvestorsLive: Citron super hot hand right now so nothing w/ big size but def should be a decent rebounder
02:00:19 pmEmil: careful guys trying to catch the bottom
02:00:23 pmEmil: Nate is Nate
02:00:25 pmLinasis: ^ no fear haha
02:00:25 pmInvestorsLive: WTW 23.50s ideally get a push for entry
02:00:26 pmEmil: ha
02:00:34 pmcarrionk: LOCK losing traction
02:00:35 pmMuddy: HZNP red
02:00:46 pmEmil: plays small size at least
02:00:59 pmMuddy: STRP up test
02:01:14 pmInvestorsLive: For sure re: Emil -- I'm 200 300 and add if winner 🙂 max size 2k once winner
02:01:22 pmInvestorsLive: halt again price
02:01:27 pmInvestorsLive: idaelly a good wash then get stuck in halt on upside
02:01:35 pmEmil: ENDP symphaty play w MNK
02:01:50 pmzerix: VRX some sympathy slap
02:02:40 pmLinasis: GPRO possible curl to $26
02:03:47 pmInvestorsLive: Filled a few MNK at last fill before halt fwiw 54.36 -- very small mid $55s avg will look for wash and nail later on ideally get a trade back $58-60 but again like Emil said if you're just buying to buy with any size -- good luck
02:03:58 pmInvestorsLive: HZNP getting hit
02:04:45 pmJimTilton: CNBC picking up the Citron piece here shortly, just ran on banner
02:04:47 pmInvestorsLive: VRX so far holding VWAP
02:05:01 pmrhhardy: MEET multi month breakout area
02:06:01 pmbigbentrader: is anybody knows what time MNK will be open
02:06:47 pmbigbentrader: MNK open
02:07:03 pmInvestorsLive: MNK on CNBC
02:08:20 pmOddStockTrader: long GLD
02:08:37 pmInvestorsLive: crap missed good entry on MNK
02:08:39 pmInvestorsLive: o well
02:09:10 pmQtrader21: MU out of channel
02:09:18 pmInvestorsLive: either way -- nice on MNK -- just wanted to scale on that last wash -- be safe and take the pops on MNK
02:09:23 pmInvestorsLive: dont over stay without locking nay in
02:10:07 pmInvestorsLive: out some MNK
02:10:15 pmInvestorsLive: 1/2 56.90s
02:10:49 pmInvestorsLive: MNK gonna likely halt
02:10:50 pmInvestorsLive: there it is
02:11:07 pmtahoedan: sune ABCD'ER
02:11:27 pmbigbentrader: now should be nice gap up on MNK
02:11:27 pmtahoedan: *SUNE
02:16:26 pmInvestorsLive: all out MNK
02:17:04 pmInvestorsLive: sucks missed the last fill really wanted for $58-60 ramp as spelled out prior -- happens -- hope some nailed
02:17:28 pmjfrusty: nice play move on MNK
02:17:54 pmbigbentrader: start ss NSC
02:19:46 pmMuddy: NVAX green test
02:19:57 pmJT_0024: MU testing 16 top
02:20:04 pmrhhardy: ICON pulling more
02:20:20 pmjfrusty: SS on NSC
02:20:34 pmzerix: HZNP push back green
02:21:14 pma01stockbros: s/s MNK small 59
02:22:30 pmjsiv95: AVXL LODs
02:23:07 pmrhhardy: ICON more legs down
02:23:16 pmelkwood66: AVXL dirt gets worse by the minute , should be another very nast close
02:23:34 pmd4ytrad3: Citron on FM halftime tmr to talk MNK
02:24:55 pmFozzie: MEET 3's up
02:25:18 pmInvestorsLive: added some VRX
02:25:23 pmInvestorsLive: same plan as I outlined
02:27:09 pmInvestorsLive: starting back nito WTW
02:27:10 pmInvestorsLive: ss
02:27:57 pmd4ytrad3: starting to add back STRP
02:28:39 pmelkwood66: AVXL just fucken amazing , sorry in advance , i just cant cover
02:28:45 pmInvestorsLive: plan would pops 23.50 as a guide hopeful pops if it grinds -- no adds if 23 over/under holds looking to add
02:30:48 pmd4ytrad3: FTK adding ss
02:31:04 pmInvestorsLive: WTW yes sir
02:34:59 pmInvestorsLive: MNK prob get some push here absorbed at 58
02:35:04 pmInvestorsLive: MNK defended
02:36:18 pmtrader530: at oppenheimer
02:36:19 pmredivy: vxx first time holding above this daily resistance by 3pm in about 3 weeks. may get some protection buyers in mkt at 3pm. long vxx risk thorugh 80c
02:38:45 pmInvestorsLive: $60 kiss and VWAP test MNK
02:40:22 pmInvestorsLive: VWAP stuff and sit back -- great example there
02:40:43 pmInvestorsLive: FOLD basketball analogy -- LODs test
02:41:37 pmInvestorsLive: done WTW -- feel like it jumps back I'll be ready for tomorrow
02:44:18 pmSavino: Added to NVDA new avg 31.26 for an eod run..
02:46:47 pmrhhardy: ICON nlod
02:47:25 pmMuddy: ITEK pops
02:47:34 pmInvestorsLive: VRX :up
02:48:34 pmbarktrader: CNBC with the assist on VRX
02:52:49 pmInvestorsLive: $86 test VRX
02:55:03 pmInvestorsLive: ICON near red
02:57:41 pmd4ytrad3: citron talking MNK leverage
02:58:21 pmd4ytrad3: FTK looking like will get clobbered
03:00:27 pmSavino: SOld the rest of YELP ...
03:02:49 pmOddStockTrader: great read WTW nate
03:02:52 pmSavino: GE nice recovery
03:06:10 pmInvestorsLive: WTW prob VWAP stuff and settle back on .50-.30s too early for EOD run imo -- going to short into this push/stuff any para
03:06:15 pmInvestorsLive: trade only
03:07:34 pmd4ytrad3: FTK huge
03:08:21 pmd4ytrad3: LXU keeping long and taking adds, giving it room on big ranges
03:11:40 pmzerix: MNK some curl here
03:12:43 pmchasefry: AGIO lod
03:14:17 pmSavino: NVDA on the move..
03:14:40 pmInvestorsLive: GE continues
03:15:02 pmSavino: yes GE !! great idea to buy on dip this morning
03:15:14 pmEmil: done w XOMA all out
03:15:32 pmtom666: nvda finally through 31.30
03:16:56 pmschang91: NVDA, damn stopped out on the last pop
03:17:01 pmInvestorsLive: SPY slam
03:17:03 pmschang91: oops sorry wrong tell
03:17:35 pmSavino: SPY slam not helping longs...out of NVDA flat..
03:18:06 pmbkam77: XOMA perk
03:20:06 pmsnbalton: ACHN nhod
03:20:41 pmInvestorsLive: VRX as we get into final hour can always lock soem in along way -- so far $85s been absorbing a lot but as you saw it can ramp all over the place so can always downside I'm being patient for a bit but if it cant hold after few tries will size back down from adds
03:20:47 pmLinasis: FTK pop
03:21:26 pmInvestorsLive: WTW missed cover on the wash by 2 cents - I do believe they are just selling to patient shorts all day on the cover side and those stubborn from prior days then likely yank but I will not fight the trade if it doesn't work
03:21:38 pmInvestorsLive: FTK conf call
03:21:46 pmInvestorsLive: 9AM Tues
03:22:12 pmSavino: SOY looking heavy here..
03:22:17 pmSavino: SPY*****
03:23:36 pmInvestorsLive: covered partial WTW into wash
03:27:50 pmtom666: nvda nhod
03:29:51 pmOddStockTrader: FIT r/g
03:31:52 pmInvestorsLive: WTW another perfect example of VWAP stuff :up
03:38:14 pmInvestorsLive: VRX nice rally back up -- last 20 may get fun
03:38:19 pmheniuro: HZNP also VWAP test
03:38:23 pmInvestorsLive: WTW so far .60s + is supported until under that may just be zzzer
03:38:39 pmArsenal: CSTM more lows
03:38:53 pmtahoedan: NSC slammed
03:39:12 pmbkam77: BLUE ramping higher
03:40:33 pmFozzie: STRP 12's
03:40:49 pmJimTilton: Canadian Pacific responds to recent market activity, stating that 'there is no material news pending at this time'; will not comment on market rumor/speculation
03:41:27 pmtom666: MDVN fading nicely
03:42:01 pmd4ytrad3: *DJ Canadian Pacific : No Material News Pending(Dow Jones 11/09 15:39:14)
03:42:27 pmLaura: ICON g/r test
03:42:43 pmheniuro: ISIS nice run today
03:43:28 pmBulrathi: CP, the run is prob due Ackman's analyst talk about the buybacks potentially being increased
03:43:44 pmzerix: XOMA slap
03:44:34 pmOddStockTrader: AVXL perk
03:48:41 pmAT09: Covered AVEO
03:49:26 pmOddStockTrader: ss CLDX risk on hod
03:53:46 pmInvestorsLive: 6 minutes guys
03:54:11 pmInvestorsLive: done w/ VRX trade may be gapper and float up AHs in fact likely but not for me o/n
03:54:24 pmInvestorsLive: nice idea from dip buys all day
03:54:50 pmOddStockTrader: will close CLDX before bell
03:55:47 pmBertonwong: man CSTM... had the right idea but got squeezed out in the morning
03:56:36 pmOddStockTrader: done CLDX
03:57:26 pmrickjaydub: ARTX rip
03:57:50 pmsniper858: AIMT nice eod move
03:58:08 pmTradeHawk: SKLN under the radar cracker
03:58:13 pmsniper858: nlnk
03:59:47 pmtom666: taking .23 on NVDA eod move
04:00:06 pmInvestorsLive: covered WTW
04:00:15 pmInvestorsLive: sick day guys well done -- really a day of "less is more"
04:00:37 pmTradestocks: HERO closed over 14 dollars, was looking at it when it was 9
04:00:49 pmStuck_Trader: any E/R after close?
04:00:54 pmOddStockTrader: GALE halted
04:00:56 pmxssara1: amazing day everyone....
04:01:12 pmBertonwong: nice calls in WTW and CTRP Nate
04:01:20 pmbayres: GALE halted
04:01:23 pmInvestorsLive: CTRP was nasty where did that finish
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