Nice long weekend for President’s Day!
I have a busy few weeks coming up, busy on Wednesday with some real estate stuff.
I hope I am wrong, but I have that ‘feeling’ that small caps may start to settle a bit. They’re running out of China names to swipe up 200-500-1000%, but again, I hope I am proven wrong. Things can start to get a bit choppier if things do slow down and not so lights out as it was last week.
HOLO turning into a perpetual squeezer.
SMCI is either a really AMAZING subject or a really bitter subject for many. I’m not going to spend much time on this weekend’s scan discussing it because all of you know what my bias was leading into the week and what my goals were on Friday alongside the real-time entries. So, I don’t want to rub salt in the wounds, nor do I want to take another victory lap.
Whatever the case – there’s really only one way to handle it that makes sense from a career standpoint. Reverse engineer the hell out of the trade. What could you have done better? What did you do right? What did you do wrong? Did you fight it on the way up? Dissect the hell out of this thing. This WILL help you on the next one. It may be a LONG time, but as you saw, the preparation on my side, comparison to the TSLA move (literally the same move), and understanding of the magnitude here in relation to GME, TSLA, and even MARA the first run, etc.
These are the case studies. These are the trades that set you free. If you’re frustrated you missed it, you won’t improve for next time. If you use your time wisely this weekend, that NEXT trade could change the trajectory of your career forever. These are the level-up trades, and as Phil said this weekend in his tweet – this is EXACTLY why we do it. Those opportunities when all the stars align.
I have a few more on “Staying Familiar” just to see these breakout charts, and if they speed up, we may have some nice opportunities.
Giveaway Winners:
- @timothyvanvliet7802
- @extremelyjosh6837
Video Scan and Game Plan
Stocks to Watch
NNOX caught shorts off guard with an old filing, everyone came to same conclusion stuck around and got popped on Friday. Perfect. Ideally hangs around and gives even a better opportunity but in the event it doesn’t looking for pops vs. recent highs.
LYFT nice idea – and great short entry Thursday and game plan Friday on this one. Ideally any good shove for break out attempt stuff and fade.
SMCI have to be aware of NVDA earnings but I’d imagine we have a great trade setting up off open flush $750-780 for $850s + rally. Don’t FORCE a trade here. Big action off open then likely consolidates like ARM for a bit.
CLSK clear soak on each dip last few days but BTC came in a bit so far this weekend. Watch with peers.
Failed Follow Through:
GXAI nice entry Friday – great failed follow through any rips vs r/g is ideal
HTOO higher better for back side
BTAI failed follow through post squeeze out of the shorts anticipating offering
CCCC ideally clear out and fade.
Continuation:
GCT steady squeezer but no real interest in long – just monitoring the move.
ZJYL thoughts are same here nothing to chase but I am really zoning in here with the thought process that it makes more sense for them to let time pass do the forward split they did and turn the paper they have into a TON more stock after forward split – create a trap walk it up and then do the usual. We’ll see. Feels like trapping is in progress.
Staying Familiar:
Maybe this is dumb like my other comments, but in NNOX you said it could be 2,3, or 5 days…. I was watching, I think it was the failed follow though, Chis has on YouTube and he said “2, 3, or 5 days” too.
It made me wonder, is there a reason it’s not possible on the 4th day? I assumed he was just saying. It could be 2, 3, or even as long as 5 days (ie day 4 included) but then you used the EXACT wording in the scan so maybe I’m missing something. 🤷🏻♂️
Also love the talking ab options, I have zero clue on them but it’s interesting to see the effect they have on the stock trends and a little bit of why it happens!!!
SMCI – logs and call for study notes
HOLO too
rather missed it, nailed, or could perform better.. try to learn and prep for the next
don’t try to find the next one to “make up for it”
ask what could i have done better, was it options?
Think about what led to that opportunity (like TSLA GME MARA)
1k – 1200, then thinking 1100, need to be ok to adjust on the fly
see everyone is hands off, if pushes and fails and doesn’t get up there everyone is cautious
Then once the crowd realizes what’s happening, sometimes its too late!
Chat logs can help you make this a great case study
Next one can help you change your trajectory
Think about the op-ex
Gamma squeeze – option chain responsible for large part of move and the expiry on Friday and flush hard
could have a nice bounce if it stalls on failing and NVDI is strong e/r
look at key levels and options around it
mom and pops looking and may have their bids in (having missed the initial long)
if it does exactly what you expect be cautious if too easy
NVDA – earning 21st – will hype be validated or not
have bullish ETFS and AI stock if bad e/r could flush hard
MARA
“what am i supposed to do with all these hedges”
going from demand layer to supply
Account builders (thinner) DBGI – huge move happens taken off radar but still meat on the bones
CHNR
nice dollar fade – don’t need a lot of size
nice to take these and spread risk across names
CPOP – liq trap
look for points of congestion
remember to lock in along the way
exit cause it is the right thing and planned not because you were forced to exit
HOLO
technical b/o 41
Chris L bot 32 and sold 34 – lesson don’t feel FOMO – make the right move
SIEN
SUB VWAP TRAP
reactive trade
likes to see crack under channel formed for conviction
HTOO – SUB VWAP TRAP
once it exhausts and confirms look for sentiment shift
WATCH
ADBE
– open AI release video and photo – could be re-eval here
NVDA sub theme could aid – watch for relative weakness
could be a go to name for puts
SMCI
Giant move on Friday
smooth line for so long
big nice flush
if trend is still in place – could be a nice bounce trade
start to have a hard time falling and gets dip and rips – be on watch for bounce
NNOX
fluff PR 300K stake old options perhaps
could be a nice ramp, watch for exhaust
got to work out the crowd could be 2,3,5 days from now
MARA – crypto
silent bull runs can last longer than you think
BTC halving in April – be on watch
CLSK and MARA always on radar – don’t force it
PLUG
needed money /ATM hit but stayed longer than the crowd expected
LYFT – day 2 FFT was nice – set up posted in room day 1