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USO: What a wild and crazy day for oil. So much fun to watch and participate in. My thoughts on oil are as follows. Whoever got torched today probably learned their lesson (I hope), but plenty of others probably won’t. So I think USO is still a short this month into the June contracts expiry in a few weeks, where I think we’ll see similar action to today (not nearly as severe, but pressure into expiry again) as I don’t see much changing in the oil demand narrative in a month for physical delivery. So my thought is USO pressure overall this entire month, and then come May 19th ish is when to start looking at the long term oil long play in USO. Will look to be shorting pops all month here and think we see 2s. The contango is real. And if the paper oil problem becomes a physical oil problem (storage issues), then all bets are off where this ends up near term. Low 2s very possible in that scenario.
EROS: Sick fader today. Hoping for another shot tomorrow, higher the better into 3 ideally for failed follow thru and the re-short.
NBY: Piggie covid name, these PRs aren’t having much staying power anymore and rightfully so. Ideally into 1.50 tomorrow for the re-short idea.
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See you out there!
– D
thank you