What a wild week of algorithms in the market last week. It seemed like each day any name with 5-7 million or less float was quickly turned into the trading vehicle of the day for these intense volume creating algo's to work shorts into the names & squeeze them out before eventually walking.
Trying to keep my trading at a very elevated level. Right now I am very zoned, focused, and trading LESS but focusing on the A+ quality set ups more. It's been a crazy run which can end the second I'm not laser focused, the second I decide that I'll "see what it'll do" vs. taking a loss or the second I have FOMO and make a bad decision to hammer into a short because I'm pissed I missed it. Know where all of that gets you? AVOIDABLE losses and ends your hot streak. So, each day is a NEW day. Yesterday doesn't matter. Last week doesn't matter. The month doesn't matter. Stay focused and keep your trading tight.
I unwound a bit last week - Flew out to Bahamas to visit Cam and had a great time with Tom (ECNC1), PMilly, and Helder from the chat! Always good times, always good fun. So, this was paradise yesterday (#TraderLifestyle you know the life style you can live every day if you're a trader - I've seen it online so it must be true 😛 haha!) but back to reality, cold, snowy etc tomorrow 🙂
So - to recap Friday my trades only 3 but FOCUSED:
HAIR shorted $1.70s covered far too soon (for a dime or .15) re shorted $1.50 a few times and made it to about $1.11x's best (very minimized size but solid plan)
SLNO - few short scalps into para cover the washes and small short into strength $4.40s EOD stop at $4.53 on half (so stopped on half) and got a piece of action into close since I anticipated them going cash by close. But, as noted anticipating shouldn't be sized - you're only one swipe away if you regularly try to find the top!
ACHV short into $5 ramp covered $3.40-3.80s flush as tweeted Friday here:
— Nathan Michaud (@InvestorsLive) March 15, 2019
Had a feeling SLNO would be walked from before end of day since it was the weekend and figured they'd want to be cash without the full weekend risk. It wasn't easy - it offered a few great scalps early but you had to be there on the flush outs otherwise they'd swipe it right back to where you were short within 20-30 seconds after the flush. It did remain in a full downtrend for the most part besides the EOD squeeze out and it had just enough lives to keep everyone on toes. They trained the mind that you don't want to hold into after hours as it could walk up a buck or two. Fortunately had some good trades there Friday, unfortunately stopped on half the $4.40s + short at $4.53 but still had some for the snap - it was much easier trading it without watching every tick and just using stops.
My trade of the day on Friday was ACHV and HAIR - both of which were shorts for me pre market as well as any strength. They both worked exactly as spelled out in the room ACHV goal was short ramps for sub $3.80 flush and we got a lot more than that and HAIR was short all ramps given the GTXI style fade - these things are not typically trend holders - and figured it'd give back a majority of the move. Given being on/off on Friday I only made it until $1.11s but it had a nice dunk sub $1 and then some.
Stay focused in this market. If you noticed ATOS / AKTX were much easier the days after they walked vs. trying to find the stop and waste all your resources (time and energy) trying to find the top when you could just wait for things to settle down. If you do trade these - watch your size. One of these types in the near term they're going to make a 1-2 million float trade 50-60 million again and we're going to have a monster move again. Volume makes people forget what true float is -- they make decisions based on price action and it's not until they control the float that people get a reminder of just how thin the float is (on the $2-3 move inside of 10 minutes against them and it's all hell from there) and they never come back until they blow shorts out. Case in point when we identified this probable move on BPTH.
Once again my goal on Sunday night scan is to hit many styles of traders. I do not plan to trade them all. I want to be focused on potentials that I like and where I see opportunity. When I come to the market Monday I will be focused on volume, range and solid price action. Typically if it has none of that - they're off radar (unless swing style uptrend, I look to join off dips that are holding)
They key is to take this list down to 2 or 3 main names and 2 more main watches from pre market action on Monday (news driven, volume driven etc).
Trading has been incredible lately, the room is on fire, we have the best names in the business for actionable alerts and news. Stay focused. If you're not doing well, feel like you are behind, need to step it up - read David Goggin's book - Can't Break Me. Stop making excuses. Start today. Change your mindset.
Stocks to Watch
ACHV goal would be morning ramp $3.20 + and use $3.50s for a guide - likely fades back to the $2.50s in the coming days. Given how it did close though, everyone who shorted didn't really have a reason to cover so, with that said -- they always like to dance a bit with this one -- we could have a secondary leg to squeeze out any of the stubborn. For now though, I think it'll be just a bunch of baggies stuck.
SLNO destroyed into close - this is an example of what liquidity is. They didn't capture enough shorts on this one for their exit so the only way they could exit was yank support and use the dip buyers for their exit which obviously drives the price down faster than you can imagine. Morning rush is ideal but I am thinking we are down .20-.30 or more off open. I could see this following AKTX ATOS back to the grave. We should have ONE nice rally day by Wednesday or Thursday just as a dead cat bounce, so I will watch for that.
AKTX excellent fades on Friday, this is the one everyone forgets about when the new one starts up - note the volume vs. prior days - non existent. You can see just how much wash volume was created making the appearance of something that wasn't true. Let this fade and much like the day we traded BPTH off the $4.50s I will be looking for similar. Lower better let the dip buyers flush out and we may have one dead cat bounce. Until then all morning pops/rushes and even rebounds w/o millions traded off open = fade likely in my eyes.
ATOS much like AKTX so far - disaster. Morning rush on $4 looking to fade back $3 - keep in mind if any of these have news again we could easily see another rally. Always keep that in mind. For now I'd compare the SEEL chart to these (likely was the same group/algo behind that move too) but you can see just how great the moves are AFTER the big fade.
SQ really thinking this crack is close at some point - like a ROKU style day where it fades $5-8 + so just staying familiar and will be there if we're holding heavy post 10AM + vs. VWAP risk
DOMO so far so good - same as expected always a big ranger. Dips for break out vs. $40s is ideal - kinda reminds me of CVNA. I think if we pushed $2 + we'd see a $2 fade and consolidate -- if we had a weak open .50-.80 yank I think we could come back $2-3 + that'd be the only trades I'd take here. I expect volume to fade off the next few days and lose the edge.
ACB so far so good from can plan on Wednesday that 100 mil + vol day I figured dips were a buy as long as wicks held higher lows over all so far 2 days of higher lows. Could see near term 15-20% break out. I will look to trade BOTH directions when opportunities present themselves. To me an opportunity is a speed up relative to prior price action - where it starts to para vs. prior trend.
HUYA typical China play - join vs. VWAP (either way) range and volume is there.
TEUM so far steady move I could see this going $6-7 before crash and burn - but focused on opportunities off open that hit a wall of sellers and have failed follow through - I'd fade that trade every day and cover flushes -- BUT if it catches on the flush it's not worth over staying. All you have to do is take one look at the daily and know there has been serious support in this name.
YETI reject watch ideally blow off $30-32 + and sit back on $28 but not looking to step in front until trend suggest to do so.
NIO monitoring heavily for a serious serious rebound where I can sink into some nice size - ONCE IT REBOUNDS and ONCE trend confirms. I'm not looking to guess the bottom. I'll join trend and scale hard ONCE it proves itself, and not a second before! This is in the stalking phase. This sell off could last weeks. But, when it's time it's going to be a big opportunity (like GE was) with major liquidity. So, it's staying on radar.
SFIX trend join 10AM +
BIGGER PICTURE IDEAS:
Couple continuation plays - possible bigger picture break out ideas:
LPTX volume is great don't like it unless we stay over $2.10-2.20s and we start to break out over $2.50s. I'd start each day if trend was holding but wouldn't want to position any size unless $2.50 held firmly and started a trend off that level
TLRA should look familiar was a dip idea last week - like as long as trend holds we could see $6.50-7 near term
CVRS this type of market loves this price range and vol they just go up each day and end up having .50 + days on blow off so watching weak opens to join the trend as long as it doesn't have failed follow through momentum
Lyft looking to raise $2 billion
— Nathan Michaud (@InvestorsLive) March 17, 2019
HYRE there has been plenty of break outs here and plenty of profit opportunity but as I've said all along since $4s I've parked a bit and just letting it do what it wants to do. I've already locked in and that's that - will let it run into Lyft/Uber was surprised it ripped this hard Friday. I am not buying here - sure woulda been nice to add but just trying to keep my $4-4.80s and see where we can end up.
DCAR as always - reminder that this has been a swing from almost a double ago when I wrote in my scan it was a new swing for me. This is where my bias comes from.
$DCAR has been a swing since mid/late February from mid/high .4x's (it is now .8x's split adjusted) - for those who missed the free scan last night check out the video at 19 minutes and 40 seconds for the explanation of the swing trade. https://t.co/QQN7J4iLKT pic.twitter.com/8hodyA38ks
— Nathan Michaud (@InvestorsLive) March 11, 2019
DCAR another one like HYRE the idea was a while ago - those joining at these levels obviously you need to have a game plan. Personally that's not my game plan. My average is under $3 - I've locked a bit in and like HYRE I will see what it does. I expect a PR at the end of the week or next Monday re: regaining compliance which may send it up a bit again even though it's expected. Name needs short - saw other rooms bashing as a pump and probably didn't understand the 'why' but fortunately they look like silly now as it ripped another 50% in their face. When it hit $5 that was a double since the idea. So be cautious on both but congrats to those who traded it so far!
KEG has the right volume for what could be a wild move like $8-10 + or more near term. If it starts to fade I'll join the fade no doubt but won't be surprsied to see this ramp a lot more.
RBZ needs to crack a lot lower but has been a former runner that always fails -- perhaps they crack it down 50% from here and then we have a play. Keeping an eye just in case.