Hope everyone had a fantastic weekend!
Big reminder that scan is more of the bigger picture trades and just staying familiar w/ names so that when they come to us – we can react that much faster. I am not looking to trade them all – they won’t all set up tomorrow it may be Tuesday Friday or next Monday – BUT I want to stay familiar with the action so that when it is time, we can just REACT vs. THINK.
Busy week last week – pretty straight forward some very clean faders last week. Mostly short trades GLG and PHUN stand outs along with some recent IPOs intraday fades before they came running back large.
Caught a little FOMO on DIS Friday coulda worked but as I said – we wouldn’t be having that convo if it kept going — right? So never upset with a loss just always aggravating when I coulda waited an extra few minutes and trade worked to plan.
As I’ve been talking about on scan daily and videos – it’s all about minimizing losses, last week I did a fairly good job at keeping losses in check. There’s always that one that I over stay or the one I ‘shoulda coulda woulda’ and takes my banner days down to ‘so so’ days and I was pretty happy with how I had done up until Friday with keeping my “loose” trades to a minimum. DIS was definitely a bit of emotion thought I’d miss out on a trade off open but instead I could have focused post open and likely done better and then PCG was wasteful as I let my “bias” stand in the way of me getting long and instead tried to scalp it short a few times giving a few donations to the name.
I kept looking for the top vs looking to join dips but never in a million years did I expect a +$4 move off that news, T530 posting it as soon as it hit and I sat there like a deer in headlights. Obviously no one expected that – options were totally outta whack. I knew not to step in front and size in but for some reason I couldn’t get long. O well. Bring it on Monday.
We did have some fun after hours before I shut my platforms down — and I think it could carry over to Monday.
Video Scan + Game Plan
Stocks to Watch
BPTH was a great scoop after hours, early bird got the worm. They withdrew their registration statement which came at a funny time because RBZ ran on Friday for not pricing/getting their offering completed when I think most had sold their “offering” shares a bit ahead of getting confirmation and ended up getting screwed and having to buy back in the open market. In other words, those friendly with the deal likely got a nod that hey, deals done at $4 otherwise it likely wouldn’t have gapped down as it did. Long story short, yep deal didn’t happen and they all got called in. So, with that happening BPTH has been “any day” for the raise – so if everyone is patiently waiting $21 20 19 18 17 etc on the short side anticipating the raise to come that gets withdrawn after hours on a Friday you bet it’ll likely squeeze especially with RBZ on their minds. So, I likely sold early … sometimes when you get too good of an average it works against you ha thinking it’s ran too much, as I posted I got mid low 17s and added and sold $20-20.50s — they trapped well mid $21s and closed towards highs after hours. I’m not totally biased about this but would not underestimate what this can do. I think many will be eager to re short it and this could cause another round of squeeze outs. The thing is, is …. a 50% move AHs is a huge move $6/share shorts are already screwed then people see a $6-7/move they think well that’s silly I’m going to short so now you compound shorts and end up at $10-12 + or more. Food for thought. Cautious. Be safe!
PCG like I said above just a wild one – I was actually surprised to see the short % was not “that” high and I think just a bunch of call sellers just sold a bit too much was free $$ for months selling anything over $20 calls hasn’t closed over $20 since the whole debacle. Anyhow, I’m not really sure what to expect come Monday. Was it all a big blow out? Or is there a big issue here, and some funds really upside down? If they are upside down and we have .30-.50 gap down and it doesn’t fade off I have no problem getting long here. We could see a move $24-25 maybe even $27-28 if there are some funds on the wrong side in a big way. So we’ll see. More comments pre market and I wouldn’t expect a trade on until 9:45-10AM + of any substance. Going in with an open mind here but do think there could be some funny business starting.
ECA DVN and a bunch of other oil and gas / energy style charts are setting up – not looking to post them all but I think it’s a good time to review your favorite oil and gas name charts and look for potential trend joins. Typically I look for ones with relative strength these usually give a better longevity trade than their peers.
PD has been a great trader the past two days, and both ways. Off the open of the IPO the long coulda been nice I didn’t catch it – DanS did, like wise with JMIA Friday. Point here is two can play these names. Both longs and shorts. The key is locking in on the extreme moves in both directions. You need to be prepared. If you were prepared on Friday there was plenty of nice wash outs – you just had to be there. Staying familiar with this trade higher better and looking for back side.
LEVI right idea right size spots just wrong patience. Ideally get a solid gap fill sub $22-21s near term – pushed on CNBC + after earnings and also prior to that kinda giving it a bid when it otherwise wouldn’t have had it. I actually believe Cramer for one didn’t like it until sub $20s or around $20 so that’s a first (cough LYFT) etc. Anyway – would join trend each day it fails vs. VWAP 945-10AM+
FLKS decent close – steady buyer into the bell Friday likely would have been there for some but swing account IRA $$ needed to settle. Watching all dips vs .50s if it continues to base – right now the market is in favor of sub dollar names.
RENN dips watch for $1.70s if any continuation – if it doesn’t gear up and push back r/g and go tomorrow I will just stay familiar w/ the chart but not force a trade.
NM been a nice swing so far I had bailed on 1/2 and then a bit more into the $4.35-36s on Wednesday felt good after the dip and then bam back on highs ha, small left but possible over extension towards $5 then I’ll look to sell remaining and get short. Great swing trade so far.
PBR total miss on this one ideally $15.20-.30s in the AM and looking to fade it sub $15
FTFT if they have a PR this can easily squeeze it pushed back late day and was super thin before fading off. This was a really nice one Thursday then pretty much walked after the morning rush Friday if they do have a PR or holds we could have a T+2 situation. Worth an eye just in case – avoid if no trend forms. Edge is gone.
ICPT morning strength and fade vs VWAP 945-10AM until it finds a base. If it can’t hold Feb lows this could be in for some serious unwind.
FGEN I always ignore these but worth watching vs. VWAP look back and see how clean this was 1130AM + vs. VWAP on Friday
JMIA will borrow again, was nice to us on the short side Friday off the highs before flushing out for $2-2.5/share — came back strong into close. Ideally some fire works and then pull. Everyone IPO lately (besides LYFT) has been going straight up. One of these is gonna turn and unwind for a week + straight – and I am monitoring to find out which one its gonna be!
NEW this shouldn’t look “new” to anyone, tweeted entry after that big QTT trade back in the $5s had scaled in it started to fade back off sized back down then as we broke back over $6 I added $7 I added $8 I added etc. There’s been a buyer each day. Volume consistent. Be nice to get another QTT style trade we’ll see. Cautious at these levels for obvious reasoning – idea was almost a double ago. Great work!
TIGR staying familiar just looking for that $2-3 pull back day – for now $20 + is ideal
YETI was on scan Friday to short any strength – nice fade (I missed it) I’d be looking for same as long as $32 holds off.
TRCH looking to swing dips vs $1.70s I’d like to anticipate a $2 break out with about 1/4 size and then scale as trend confirms.
TW staying familiar – another IPO took it long a few times just waiting for the day they hit a wall of sellers and doesn’t come back.
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